cheap actos uk medicine cheapest flovent amoxicillin powder for oral suspension colchicine prescription medicine can you buy mifepristone in the uk diabetes medication metformin hcl ordering cialis professional on line viagra over the counter uk 2010 canadian glyburide dosage and administration side effects on women taking viagra us pharmacy online finax luvox buy without effects of propecia on fetus aspirin non perscription countries valtrex dosage primary outbreak is it safe to buy prescription drugs in mexico how to get off celexa safely book review buy carafate on line is forzest a prescription drug erythromycin better than amoxicillin best place to buy rhinocort generic for pariet punbb hosting forums kosovarja viewtopic ampicillin otc venda alli internet compare prescription atarax dose dogs blue pill m on one side 100 on other buy motrin astrailia beipackzettel atacand 16 mg tabletten where to buy nolvadex online uk finax delivery uk generic bystolic cost discount diltiazem online chemist no prescription indian pharmaceutical alliance dilip shah weight gain after getting off depo provera does differin work overnight generic pills for xenical topamax dosage cost of crestor at cvs metformin prescription uk where aleve motrin order liquid prednisone dosage for children chloroquine plus proguanil prices comprar benemid portugal lean promethazine prices is it safe to order dostinex where is nexium made how to discontinue use of coumadin zoloft during pregnancy lawsuit duo boots promo code omnicef tablets from buy tadacip coupons what does digoxin dose generic drug name lipitor list of canadian drug companies purchasing aspirin online uk cozaar online in us moduretic max dose prednisone dosage for children with croup skin care products after accutane hyaluronic acid tablets uses femara cheapest rate canada fluoxetine tablets online rumalaya now co uk suprax express canada ventolin hfa aer glax private canadian health-care insurance for their stay in canada overseas pharmacy no prescription bystolic order asthma inhaler online donde puedo comprar tarjetas de xbox live gold what is amoxil forte buy alesse online canada drugstore strattera dosage chart for children asacol and canadian pharmacy canadian health and care mall scams order levaquin buy seroxat how to import lipitor keflex online no prescription canada buy cheap advair diskus generic online zoloft alcohol hangover can i order triamterene online ordering isoptin canada fungsi metronidazole levitra plus drugs where can i buy nitroglycerin ointment without order acticin 30g cheap plavix clopidogrel ondansetron hcl+online+pharmacy buy nitroglycerin 40 toprol xl in the uk buy tenormin online us no prescription ophthacare online pharmacy uk wellbutrin xl side effects hair loss aciclovir fast uk best generic exelon sites zoloft cost australia how long does it take for synthroid to cause weight loss indian buy alesse ovral l risperdal quicklet cmi kamagra delivery ireland from where i can buy viagra in delhi what is avapro used to treat over the counter viagra in stores tretinoin gel paypal order benicar from canada buy generic aspirin purchase probalan pills where to buy levothyroxine online in uk generic imitrex online pharmacy uk low coreg high blood pressure learn provera 20 mg daily is there a shortage of depakote cheap generic uroxatral erythromycin medicine effects imitrex side effects uk decadron syrup side effects doxazosin refill pack order skelaxin in can you buy doxycycline cambodia order adderall rx online flagyl pills used generic vasotec uk paypal where to buy reminyl drugs online what is tadalis mg used to treat pariet costo tadalafil kaufen plavix medication on line purchase benzaclin buy provera online no prescription purinethol reviews for men ephedraxin no prescription canada buy brand cafergot clozaril no prescription canada bactroban ointment over the counter australia buy viagra in melbourne sertralina bula medicamento ampicillin from usa compazine mg tablet order vytorin tablets celexa 40 mg canada didronel shortage purchase tretinoin online generic for zestril finasteride use canine viagra soft generico online strattera legal status uk nitrofurantoin medicine children buy rumalaya with e check evista coupon code buy dutas online india what is trileptal speman online sales bactrim acne medicine prednisolone acetate 1 price purchase renagel online legal to buy buspar lamictal online no prescription kamagra gold on line for sale no script torsemide side effects long term use zyprexa cost in canada lowest priced acticin pictures of furosemide pills atarax comprimidos propiedades cheap houses to buy liverpool canadian pharmacy online glucotrol inderal over counter uk promethazine buy canada pharmacy mexico finax can you take depakote to get high how to get levlen in australia generic zyprexa available what does digoxin toxicity look like mircette medicine hyaluronic acid maximum dosage flagyl online usa safe prednisone dosage for dogs mail order generic tretinoin 0,05 paroxetine generic prozac best sex enhancement drugs in india esomeprazole no presciption diabecon pills sweat is valtrex available on line in canada levitra super active tablets us online fgr 100 mp pill where to buy zanaflex online usa erythromycin drug class the online drugstore zyprexa eldepryl online store prescription free viagra canada lexapro buy on line cialis vs viagra en espanol levitra eulexin on the internet terramycin mg price mail-order sominex hydrea without insurance tegretol ordering no prescription buy zenegra next day synthroid canada pharmacy where to buy amitriptyline 10mg generic finast uk paypal how to order diabecon best site to buy lotensin what are the side effects of taking claritin d buy lithium new zealand online nolvadex over the counter uk no rx flovent online buy cipro 500 mg famvir to buy in australia what does phenergan tablets treat best pomegranate juice uk is seroquel better than zyprexa cheap pillsbury atta will generic celebrex available us what is the cost of ciprofloxacin purchase generic retin-a 0,05 reputable pharmacy in canada omifin clomifeno tabletas 50 mg reviews on aciclovir order zetia online uk buy unisom hong kong orlistat generic pariet pharmacy online side effects of wellbutrin xl lesofat orlistat price philippines boots pharmacy manchester piccadilly seroflo online forum comprar adoair effexor xr next day shipping prednisolone shop net micronase no prescription reviews bayer baby aspirin pharmacy technician online canada buy provera pills in the uk crestor dosage vs lipitor order acivir pills overnight rx zebeta order is ventolin available over the counter purchase desyrel cymbalta shortage buy nexium without presciption what is colchicine made of beconase aq discount medications zestoretic mg buy retin-a 0,05 online in us can metformin get you high purchase acai berry acheter batterie lithium ion does boots sell viagra over the counter drugstore dosage of clonidine for children is it safe to order levitra plus cialis 10 mg coupon what is dostinex pills used for bayer india annual report 2010 how many tablets of cytotec for abortion elocon salep bayi where do i suhagra in canada cheap generic dutas viagra se puede tomar todos los dias research grade keppra zyrtec dosage side effects of asacol hd how to import singulair reviews forum generic propecia generic glucophage xr extended release finax discontinued diclofenaco cinfa side effects benadryl medicine children buy valtrex singapore capoten dose remeron now cialis generika paypal imitrex nasal spray rx list differin prices cvs crestor sublingual dosage cipla ltd patalganga panvel cheap trileptal cialis tadalafila lilly propecia online singapore natural viagra substitutes for women buying alphagan in manchester piroxicam tablets 20mg cialis jelly daily use reviews cheap pamelor buy online rogaine 2 discount voucher suppliers of aldactone in us buy trimox online without prescription what is metoprolol what are the side effects of minocycline 50 mg cialis soft birth control online us amitriptyline sleep apnea buy xenical online australia what does erexor what is citalopram hydrobromide generic for acivir pills mg buy original promethazine online buy lotensin cheap hytrin pharmacy prices list buy phentermine tablets zyprexa 40 mg pharmacy brand cialis on line for sale no script aristocort generic name top rated drugs for anxiety and depression voveran sr suppositories buy viagra online canadian pharmacy reviews effexor xr free shipping antabuse prescription information short term high dose prednisone side effects permethrin liquid cream rinse amaryl to buy in the usa without a prescription sertralina emagrece dosagem generic cialis kopen cheap viagra sale uk norvasc 10 mg twice daily glucotrol xl half life pyridium by mail buying famvir for dogs anafranil shortage bentyl dosage for ibs keflex dose for uti in pregnancy aleve dose strength low cost zithromax order cialis canada +domperidone without a prescription antifludes pediatrico para la tos mail order generic coreg buy amoxicillin uk no prescription zoloft buy online uk order proscar uk 100 floors level 92 aspirin cost nhs generic inderal switzerland medicine ampicillin tr how to by apcalis sx online comprar synthroid portugal suhagra for sale australia safe buy atorlip-5 online what works better than alli purchase nitroglycerin kwikmed coupon free shipping good viagra tablets in india best diet pills on the market pharmacy that sells paxil propecia women side effects where to get mentats in new vegas florida imuran generic remeron cost can i use makeup while on accutane acivir pills coupons etodolac online shipping generic of protonix acid teva precipitated calcium carbonate price in india cytotec for sale in davao city indian generics online olanzapine buy renagel paypal accepted dulcolax canadian pharmacy buy brand advair diskus without rx fast tenormin delivery what is vardenafil use for pariet rxlist clonidine reviews for men bactroban drugstore.com generic viagra overnight no prescription cheap generic baclofen toradol order in the us pyridium medication online voveran delivery london order nolvadex pill brand advair diskus in canada buy shuddha guggulu online no prescription us buy revia patch adalat nifedipine pregnancy propranolol and diet pills where can i get evista citalopram overdose long term effects blopress 50mg tablets pharmacy pills we accept echeck canadian pharmacy benemid trental retard draje 400 mg 20 dr vendita viagra in contrassegno alli medication weight loss purchase viagra sublingual pills where to purchase purim online diclofenac overnight delivery tesco pharmacy opening times northampton average cost of asacol himcolin reviews for men buy generic nexium no prescription alliance of states with prescription drug monitoring programs ortho tri-cyclen buy online ireland order proscar online no presctiption epivir-hbv reviews furosemide buy online india amaryl canada vermox how to buy best price for real dipyridamole generic prednisone canada viagra super active for purchase claritin ingredients children common blood pressure medication uk what over the counter drugs can you take with lithium zyloprim pas cher buy cheap keppra which uk site to buy keftab discount canadian pharmacy sarafem order doxycycline pill where amaryl patients sustiva limited india otc viagra alternative noperscriptionmeds coumadin alcohol dangers innopran xl mg tablet top 10 online wellbutrin sr sites nolvadex shop uk cymbalta medicine for depression my pham tenamyd canada co tot khong purchase viagra soft in canada zestoretic online order cheap pills buy bentyl online irritable allopurinol fda approved to buy without prescription buy cheap haldol pills bactrim ds dosage for uti fosamax no prescription canada xeloda refills why has lexapro been discontinued genuine zebeta best price flonase online no prescription where to order xanax online no prescription roxithromycin pills online in the usa can you get zyrtec d over the counter etodolac woldwide shipping compazine ships from india comprar viagra em portugal what are the side effects of augmentin duo evecare online billig viagra professional online kaufen what is the cost of januvia vet meds with no prescription methotrexate for sale to buy roxithromycin in uk orlistat reviews 120mg plendil on line for sale no script what is propranolol mg used to treat buy nitrofurantoin online with mastercard how much does cymbalta cost at target amaryl women buy trental 400 mg uses deutschland online pharma universities offering masters in pharmacy in canada maximum dose of topamax for migraines purchase antabuse on line in mexico accutane to buy zyloprim 10 mg cheapest place get claritin liquid toradol review use xenical coupon online cheapest himcocid tablets uk lantus solostar needles patient assistance benicar sale water retention pills gnc does zanaflex cause weight gain tofranil dosage too high discover the world generic eulexin usa pharmacy safe place order chloroquine midamor from europe missed mircette pills allopurinol no prescription compare prices forum baclofene aubes amaryl prices at costco does zocor make you gain weight where purchase phexin uk buy lexapro without prescription avodart overseas no prescription zovirax cream ordering bactrim on line where can you buy viagra prescription herbal viagra for sale in ireland does a low dose of seroquel cause weight gain citalopram cost at walmart purchase leukeran pills best site get advair diskus price of augmentin 625mg in india nexium cheap no prescription chloroquine discount blopress nebenwirkungen harndrang tamoxifen on line purchase norvasc reviews side effects when to take omeprazole buy minocin online billig yasmin online kaufen genuine alli prandin cost in canada minocin online pharmacy uk order pharmacy cheap diovan comprar aciphex en argentina midamor cost uk pharmaceutical wholesalers distributors diclofenac gel legal in england what does augmentin tablet look like liv medication where to buy alli online cheap over the counter pills to help get pregnant buy finax greece best site to buy cafergot can i make trileptal pyridium 100 mg dosis seroflo brands india list of tesco stores selling rosuvastatin procardia 10 mg cost bupropion in croatia can acai berry cause weight gain what does yasmin mean in persian buy albendazole new zealand online aristocort echeck buy cialis soft in usa feldene gel wiki abortion pills cytotec misoprostol buy freshwater fish online australia stromectol in usa depakote and allergy medicine difference between tamoxifen and raloxifene prograf sold over counter who makes viagra professional cost comparison generic plendil online generic wellbutrin sr paypal getting moduretic in australia pharmacies amitriptyline online no prescription needed order best price for acivir pills urispas mg buy la pastilla redustat sirve can you get brahmi is citalopram prescription only what is red ginseng tea good for olanzapine overdose emedicine actos on line no script zebeta australia price what happens when you take viagra and drink alcohol nifedipine and grapefruit buy indocin india cytotec best price cost of viagra in ireland finasteride cost ireland cheapest geriforte syrup what is singulair drugs natural alternative to prednisone for dogs stromectol uk online sandoz bupropion side effects buy accutane cheap online prescription vente de tamoxifen au quebec much does prescription orlistat cost para que se usa provera order snovitra super power which uk site to buy cefixime dapoxetine for sale philippines avapro purchase in canada no prescription nymphomax lowest price fluoxetine purchase cheap pain meds no prescription venlor pill shop discount code do i need a prescription for medrol buy combivent us plavix periactin dosage for weight gain where to get styplon pct what are antibiotics prescribed for desi tashan veera star plus colospa cost in canada
Home David Simmons Now a Free Agent, What's Albert Pujols' Star Value to Other Teams?

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 745 guests online

Atom RSS

Now a Free Agent, What's Albert Pujols' Star Value to Other Teams? PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 43
PoorBest 
David Simmons Article Archive
Written by David Simmons   
Thursday, 03 November 2011 09:02

Pujols

What is Albert Pujols or any star player worth to the bottom line? The truth is nobody really knows except the teams themselves. The data needed to tell us the answer isn’t all out there so unless you work in finance or business operations at an MLB team you can’t really tell the full story.

No fan or writer knows what television contracts, suite and premium seating contracts, insurance rates, and debt services look like for an MLB team. As baseball fans we try to put a value on every play. FanGraphs, Vince Gennaro, Andrew Zimbalist, J.C. Bradbury, and Nate Silver have all published individual studies on player valuation. Their studies and my previous work have helped served as a template of what you find before you. Due to third-party-related transactions (RSN/Legends), unforeseen revenue windfalls from a new national television deal, the ramifications in the upcoming CBA (revenue sharing/luxury tax/draft slotting),and the multiplier effect on the bottom line, no numbers can be said as being the end-all be-all formula. The numbers below are just a guideline as to which businesses (teams) have the most to gain by signing Albert.

Coming from the land of Kobe, Lindsay, Beckham, Britney, and Manny, the value of a one-name star and the best player in baseball is not lost on me. So I will try my best to put a value on his next contract from a business standpoint with a bit of baseball mixed in as well.  Please note that the numbers below are interchangeable for a Prince Fielder contact. Fielder is four years younger, left-handed, and it will be argued that he is a scarcer resource as I’m sure the Boras and Co. will even though Albert is superior with the glove. Given the greater marketability and starpower of Pujols, I’ll be using him for the study.

For the study I first culled the top 15 revenue-producing teams in the league (based on 2010 Forbes data), then added in Milwaukee -- due to Prince Fielder’s impending free agency -- and Baltimore, as they own the television rights to not only the Orioles but over half of the Nationals. Now armed with 17 teams, I went out in search of the following data to see what teams are primed to best take advantage of signing Pujols.  The teams included in the study are:

  • New York Yankees
  • Boston Red Sox
  • Chicago Cubs
  • Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Philadelphia Phillies
  • New York Mets
  • San Francisco Giants
  • Los Angeles Angles
  • Minnesota Twins
  • Chicago White Sox
  • St. Louis Cardinals
  • Texas Rangers
  • Seattle Mariners
  • Atlanta Braves
  • Washington Nationals
  • Milwaukee Brewers
  • Baltimore Orioles

I took a look at this past seasons’ payroll, guaranteed payroll for the next three years (Thanks to Cot’s Contracts) and available funds moving forward to see how had the financial capacity to take on the $25-30 million annually one would need to commit to Albert and more importantly the revenue upside. As Nate Silver’s study in Baseball Between The Numbers suggests, it’s always important to understand how many wins the teams had won, as the value of incremental wins increase heavily from wins 85-90. It’s also worth noting that in Year 2 of the new Pujols contract a second wild card team will be added. This wild card will allow for a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs rather than the 25 percent under the current system.  With a ticketing background, let’s take a look as to which teams had the most to gain, then take a peek at sell-thru rates the past two seasons at each team’s stadiums and what the value was of their dead inventory.

To value their unsold seats, they were merely multiplied by the average ticket price from Team Marketing Reports’ fan cost index. Additionally, suites and RSN ownership will definitely play a hand in each team’s formula as will having a large number of major-league-ready “minimum wage” players to be able afford to spend that type of dollars elsewhere on the diamond. The basic formula for putting a number to Pujols’ value to the bottom line and how that bottom line may increase takes the following categories into account:

Ticket sales + Premium ticket sales + Sponsorship + (Concessions Less Concessionaire’s Cut) + Parking (for those who own their own parking lots)

- 31 percent revenue sharing (although the number is slightly lower due to the way premium tickets are counted and is subject to change in the new CBA) - Insurance on the contract - Taxes on team profits (if any)

+ the 3rd party-related transactions : Television advertisements  and subscriptions (for those who have RSN ownership or the potential to start one during the life of the contract).


Pujols, or even Fielder for that matter, must generate at a minimum $45 million in incremental revenue to justify a $30 million annual contract. This number does not include the postseason effect, though. Postseason valuations are tricky, because teams don’t make money that year, and most funds go to players unless they are involved in a long series. That value is on the next three years’ books, really.

By using the 17 teams above and looking at win totals below, I have attempted to reflect the importance of the playoffs but will not be putting a hard value on it. If a team consistently goes to the playoffs, there is a minimal effect on the bottom line (Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox). So now that we know what type of revenue we are looking at to generate, let’s take a look at what teams will find Pujols to be a worthwhile investment.  Of the 17 teams included in the study one can easily argue to remove the NY Yankees (Mark Teixeira), Boston Red Sox (Adrian Gonzalez), Philadelphia Phillies (Ryan Howard), and Minnesota Twins (Justin Morneau), as they all have made substantial investments and sellout most if not all of their games. So let’s take a look at the baker’s dozen of other business contenders for Albert.

SELECT READ MORE TO SEE DETAILS FOR ALL THE CLUBS IN THE STUDY

 

 

Chicago Cubs

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $86, $28, $19 million ($25 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons: 83 wins, 75 wins, and 71 wins (0 playoff appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 92% (Down 1% from LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $14 million

Size of premium inventory: 60 suites, 3510 club seats ($103.47 average ticket price)

RSN: Comcast Sports Network Chicago

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Geovany Soto, Starlin Castro, Brett Jackson, & Matt Sczur

Los Angeles Dodgers

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons: $46, 47, $17 million ($20 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  95 wins, 80 wins, and 82 wins (0 playoff appearances last 2 seasons)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 65% (Down 14% from LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $48.5 million

Size of premium inventory:  35 suites, 1982 club seats ($222.38 average ticket price)

RSN:  To Be Decided by new owner (Worst TV ratings in league)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, Zach Lee, & Allen Webster

New York Mets

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $67, $45, and $9 million ($19 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  70 wins, 79 wins, and 77 wins (0 playoff appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 72% (Down 5% from LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $30 million

Size of premium inventory:  54 suites, 7800 club seats ($102.13 average ticket price)

RSN: 51% ownership of SNY (153K HH/Game, 4th in MLB)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Bobby Parnell, Ike Davis, Matt Harvey, & Zach Wheeler

San Francisco Giants

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $73, $22, and $7 million ($10-15 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  88 wins, 92 wins, and 86 wins (1 playoff appearance, 1 Championship)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 100% (Up 10% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $0 million

Size of premium inventory:  64 suites, 8514 club seats ($78.73 average ticket price)

RSN: CSN Bay Area (127,000 HH/game, 5th in MLB)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Buster Posey, Madison Bumgardner, & Gary Brown

Los Angeles Angels

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons: $102, $47, and $37 million ($20 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  97 wins, 80 wins, and 86 wins (0 playoff appearances last 2 seasons)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 86% (Down 3% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $8.8 million

Size of premium inventory:  80 suites, unknown number of club seats ($67.71 average ticket price)

RSN: FSN West (29th in ratings)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Jean Segura, and Kaleb Cowert

Chicago White Sox

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons: $90, $65, $42 million ($15-20 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  79 wins, 88 wins, and 79 wins (0 playoff appearances since 2005)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 61% (Down 6% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $52 million

Size of premium inventory:  95 suites, 1833 club seats ($99.77 average ticket price)

RSN: Comcast Sports Network Chicago

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb:  Chris Sale & Tyler Flowers

St. Louis Cardinals

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $85, $57, $24 million ($12-15 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  91 wins, 86 wins, and 90 wins (2 playoff appearances, 1 Championship)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 87% (Sales flat over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $14.4 million

Size of premium inventory:  64 suites, 667 club seats ($71.96 average ticket price)

RSN:  FSN Midwest (2nd highest ratings of all MLB teams)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb:  David Freese, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, & Tyrell Jenkins

Texas Rangers

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $63, $33, and $17 million ($5-10 million post-arb to spend)

Wins past 3 seasons: 87 wins, 90 wins, and 96 wins (2 World Series appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 74% (Up 11% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $19.2 million

Size of premium inventory:  123 suites, 5500 club seats ($67.17 average ticket price)

RSN: Fox Sports Southwest

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb:  Neftali Feliz, Martin Perez, Jurickson Profar, & Leonys Martin

Seattle Mariners

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $60, $38, and $21 million ($20 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons: 85 wins, 61 wins, and 67 wins (0 playoff appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 49% (Down 5% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $51.7 million

Size of premium inventory:  61 suites, 5059 club seats ($56.98 average ticket price)

RSN: FSN West

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Michael Pineda, Danny Hultzen, and Taijuan Walker

Atlanta Braves

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $65, $15, and $13 million ($15-20 million post-arb to spend)

Wins past 3 seasons:  86 wins, 91 wins, and 89 wins (1 playoff appearance)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 60% (Down 2% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $31.2 million

Size of premium inventory:  60 suites, 5243 club seats ($49.26 average ticket price)

RSN: SportSouth (74K HH/Game)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, & Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, & Randall Delgado

Washington Nationals

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $45, $36, $23 million ($40 million post-arb to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  59 wins, 69 wins, and 80 wins (0 playoff appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 60% (Up 6% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $41.1 million

Size of premium inventory: 79 suites, 2200 club seats ($166.25 average ticket price)

RSN: MASN2 (29,000HH, worst in MLB)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Stephen Strasburg,  Drew Storen, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, AJ Cole, & Brad Peacock

Milwaukee Brewers

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $58, $40, and $45 million ($12-20 million post-arb to spend)

Wins past 3 seasons:  80 wins, 77 wins, and 96 wins (1 playoff appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 91% (Up 10% over LY)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $6.7 million

Size of premium inventory:  66 suites, 641 club seats ($39.59 average ticket price)

RSN: Fox Sports Wisconsin (72,000 HH/Game)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: John Axford & Wily Peralta

Baltimore Orioles

Fixed Payroll for next 3 seasons:  $43, $33, and $22 million ($10-25 million to spend per MLBTR)

Wins past 3 seasons:  64 wins, 66 wins, and 69 wins (0 playoff appearances)

This year’s overall sell-thru rate: 48% (Up 3% over last year)

Estimated Value of dead inventory this season: $46.2 million

Size of premium inventory:  72 suites, 4800 club seats ($43.72 average ticket price)

RSN: MASN (31,000 HH/Game, 28th in League)

Top Players in Farm System & Pre-Arb: Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, & Jonathan Schoop

From a ticketing standpoint, the teams with the most outstanding inventory are the White Sox ($52.1 million), Mariners ($51.7), Dodgers ($48.5), Orioles ($46.2), Nationals ($41.1), Braves ($31.2), and the Mets ($30.3). Now which of these teams seem to be closest to the playoffs every year with a need at first base?

The Mariners (Justin Smoak) and Orioles (Chris Davis) are in rebuilding phases, the Braves have six more years of Freddie Freeman and the Nationals seem set on Michael Morse at first. So that leaves the White Sox, Dodgers and Mets as the teams best-positioned to take advantage of signing Pujols, though they’re not alone. Let’s take a deeper look at each team and their competition:

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox would seem to be an ideal fit. If they sold half of their inventory outstanding and another $5 million in sponsorship they could easily pickup the rest in concessions and increased ticket usage. Then take into account the non-financial factors: The team has not appeared in the postseason for six years, Pujols could be an ideal DH for the later years of the contract, Chicago boasts a large Hispanic community and there’s growing competition from their neighboring Cubs due to Theo Epstein’s arrival in the front office.  The team seems to be just outside the postseason annually and adding the 6-9 win player that is Albert Pujols would put the team in a position to compete for the playoffs every year.

On the down side, the team has many long-term commitments that make signing Pujols unlikely; however, a simple trade of Adam Dunn to one of the also-rans in the Pujols sweepstakes accompanied with moving Paul Konerko to DH would pave the way for what would prove to be a wise business transaction.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers, like their Camelback Ranch counterparts, are a perfect fit. James Loney is in his last year of arbitration. The team could lose Matt Kemp after next season. The team has averaged 81 wins over the past 2 seasons and are about to launch a television network or sell their television rights. The LA market is the 2nd largest in the United States and since we’ve ruled out New York it’s the largest market in play for Albert’s agent.  Los Angeles has a very strong Hispanic community and would fit Albert’s personality as being just another celebrity in a town full of them. The team knows what winning will do to their bottom line with back to back LCS performances a few years back. Given McCourt ownership of the parking lots and the land acquiring Albert Pujols would be the ultimate power play while Kobe sits on the sideline during the lockout and the NFL seems years away. The team is controlled now by MLB as they are in the process of being sold, so I can’t see the expenditure.

New York Mets

The Mets take the back seat to the Yankees on a daily basis and are bracing for the departure of Jose Reyes. Based on their talent level throughout the minors and financial issues, they seem to be in the worst position of any NL East team. If the team wasn’t in need of a cash infusion against the backdrop of a Madoff clawback this would be a nice landing spot for Pujols. For a team that seems to be having massive fiscal issues, Ike Davis for 1/60th of the cost it would take to land Pujols seems to be the route they’ll end up taking.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs seem to have already made their big offseason acquisition in Theo Epstein. Based on his competitive nature, I can see him getting into the bidding fray if for no other reason than to raise the costs on his division rivals. The club has $14 million in dead inventory, and I see that number potentially rising if the team keeps losing. The team has already announced adjustment in ticket pricing for next season.

If Ricketts owned Wrigley, the land, and the RSN, then signing Pujols would be a no-brainer for the new head of Cubs business operations. But he only owns the team and a small portion of the RSN. I think a back-loaded contract would make sense for the organization, something that would make a statement of change. Coming off a 71-win season and with a second wild card being an option in 2013, one could easily make the argument that adding Pujols and Epstein would make the Cubs a viable player in 2013. The value of taking the best player off your divisional rival can’t be understated both on and off the field.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels organization has shied away from long-term contracts under Arte Moreno just like their neighbors up I-5. Mike Scioscia, the Angels’ de facto GM right now, recently stated that current first baseman Mark Trumbo deserved to be Rookie of the Year this season. Even though they’ve missed the postseasons two years running, they still seem to be selling most of their tickets. They could be a team to watch, though, as they are negotiating a new television deal as you read this.

St. Louis Cardinals

World-champion St. Louis is in a very tough spot, as the team would be spending a lot of money just to supposedly maintain its current revenue streams. They only had $14 million in outstanding inventory, already moved stadiums recently and just won the World Series. One could argue given Adam Wainwright’s return, the expectation of Fielder leaving Milwaukee, and with the addition of the second wild card that re-signing Pujols is a poor baseball decision. The need on the business and baseball side is just not there.

This is a decidedly personal move as there is very little new upside in the short-term revenue of re-signing the perennial All-Star. Marketers will tell you that Joe Mauer, Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter had it right by playing for one team their whole careers.  Dan Lozano, Pujols’ agent, must weigh this heavily in deciding against moving Pujols out of the city he’s called home his entire big league career.  CNBC’s Darren Rovell recently predicted that Pujols would stay home for a slight discount, and I tend to agree with him. If the offers that come in are within $20-25 million of what St. Louis offers, then I think he stays. But whose left  to blow the Cardinals’ offer out of the park?

Texas Rangers

Texas is armed with a new ownership group and back-to-back World Series appearances, and the team will see another financial windfall this offseason. Just last season they closed on an $80 million annual television contract that begins in 2015. The revenues are there to justify the expense, but how much real incremental value will be picked up by signing him? The team has $19.2 million in outstanding ticket inventory, but judging by the secondary market for the World Series, it will have no problem selling much of the inventory without him. Pujols represents a major upgrade at first base over current starter Mitch Moreland, and the Rangers can choose to DH Pujols in his later years just like the White Sox could.

Like the Dodgers face with Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton is a free agent after next season, so a nine-figure contract seems to be coming for the Rangers one way or another. The question is, will they give it to Pujols, Fielder or Hamilton? In the end, the Rangers have what the White Sox and Dodgers wish they had: an opening at first and television money in hand. This is the best landing spot for Pujols from all angles.

Milwaukee Brewers/San Francisco Giants

The last ones take a look at are the Brewers, who are in a similar situation to the Giants. They would both love to sign Fielder or Pujols, but the incremental revenues aren’t there to justify the expense. Both teams have solid cores and steady revenues but it would seem to be a better business and baseball move to sign Jose Reyes this offseason. He’s new, cheaper, and fills a void at the top of their lineups. The second wild card spot is almost a disincentive to these teams as they are 85-plus-win teams without signing Pujols. Brandon Belt, when healthy, seems to be the Giants’ future at first base.

The three wild cards in the Pujols sweepstakes are Baltimore, Florida, and Washington. The Orioles, who have $46 million in outstanding inventory, could view Pujols as an investment into their television networks.

Another team that would seem to make a lot of sense is the Marlins, considering they’ll have a new stadium. Coming off another losing season with thousands of seats to sell in a large Hispanic community with Ozzie Guillen to manage him would justify his signing from a business standpoint. Armed with more than 10,000 club seats and 195 suites, the Marlins’ new stadium might need somebody like Pujols in order to sell out.

It’s always worth reminding fans that the Lerner family, which runs the Nationals, is the wealthiest ownership group in the league. The club could easily move Michael Morse to outfield, making way for Pujols at first base. A lineup card of Ramos-Pujols-Desmond-Espinosa-Zimmerman-Harper-Werth-Morse in 2013 seems to be one that could easily compete for a wild card berth.

So where will Pujols be playing baseball next year? Nobody really knows. It makes the most sense to say “in the Central time zone” (Chicago, St. Louis, Texas), with slim chances of either South Beach or the Beltway. Those seven teams are the only ones on a business side that can justify the expense and make it happen right now (sorry Mets and Dodgers fans).

Pujols and Fielder picked the absolute wrong year to hit the market, as the top 10 teams in league revenues might not all be bidding for their services: The Yankees (Teixiera), Red Sox (Gonzalez), Cubs (heavy long-term payroll commitments and no DH possibility), Dodgers (bankruptcy court), Phillies (Howard), Mets (fiscal issues), Giants (Brandon Belt and rising costs of pitching staff), Angels (heavy long-term payroll commitments and Trumbo), Twins (Morneau), and the White Sox (heavy long-term payroll commitments and Konerko) all have reasons to pass.

Next on the list are the two World Series combatants in Texas and St. Louis. Ultimately, I can see only two or three teams making a serious bid for Pujols outside of St. Louis. I think one of the newer owners, or the one with a new ballpark, in Ryan, Lerner, or Loria, make him an offer to top Alex Rodriguez’ free-agent record of $250 million, and Pujols will remain with the Cardinals after they go a bit higher from their original offer. The team will use its newfound World Series funds to raise prices and revenues. The contract will contain the highest level of deferred funds ever so St. Louis can afford to build a team around him. I foresee a prolonged bidding process similar to the Dodgers pursue of Manny Ramirez in 2009, as the teams will want a better understanding of 2012 revenues and the new CBA. The more time they have the more informed of a bid they can make. If another bidder goes $40-50 million higher than what St. Louis offers, then this will put Pujols, his agent, and the MLBPA in a very tough spot. In the meantime, remember the decision to acquire Albert isn’t just a baseball decision, but a business decision as well. While the purist baseball fan in all of us is rooting for a return to St. Louis, I see it happening thanks to the Cardinals’ World Series revenues and the fact that there’s no better landing spot for the Pujols brand than the place where it’s been cultivated for years.


David SimmonsDavid Simmons is a graduate of the University of Central Florida who worked in the front office of the Los Angeles Dodgers over 4 seasons and has a decade of ticketing experience.. He serves as CFO for Players For The Planet and currently resides in Baltimore. You can follow David on Twitter @davidesimmons

Follow The Biz of Baseball on Twitter Twitter

FacebookFollow the Business of Sports Network on Facebook

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?