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Rating the '07 HOF Candidates Based on Win Shares PDF Print E-mail
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Articles & Opinion
Written by Bill Gilbert   
Monday, 04 December 2006 17:35
ArticleOne of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 9, 2007.  

Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance—offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not."

The 2007 class of Hall of Fame candidates is the strongest in several years. It consists of 15 holdovers and 16 players eligible for the first time. Four holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Andre Dawson with 340, Bert Blyleven, 339; Dave Parker, 327; and Alan Trammell with 318. Four newcomers on the list have over 300 Win Shares; Cal Ripken, Jr., 427; Tony Gwynn, 398; Mark McGwire, 342; and Harold Baines, 307. One of the newcomers last year, Will Clark, had 331 Win Shares but failed to receive the 5% of votes required to remain on the ballot.  The only 2006 newcomers with enough votes to remain on the ballot were Orel Hershiser (11.2%) and Albert Belle (7.7%).

With the weak incoming class last year, all but one of the 15 holdovers gained votes. The only one that didn’t was Willie McGee who lost 14 votes and dropped below 5%, eliminating him from further consideration by the Baseball Writers. The big gainers were Bert Blyleven (66 votes), Bruce Sutter (56 votes) and Goose Gossage (51 votes).  Sutter’s total of 400 votes (76.9%) was enough for election to the Hall. Jim Rice (64.8%, Gossage (64.6%), Andre Dawson (61.0%) and Blyleven (53.3%) are now within striking range of the 75% required for election but with the incoming  class being so strong, they  will probably not gain enough votes to make it this year.  They will have a much better chance next year with a very weak class becoming eligible.

In the 2007 class, Ripken and Gwynn are certain to be elected on the first ballot. McGwire has the numbers to be elected but is tainted with the steroid cloud and many writers have indicated they will not vote for him. He may make it eventually but not this year. The only other newcomer that is likely to receive significant support is Baines but he is not a serious candidate for election since he was not a dominant player and was primarily a designated hitter for much of his career. Jose Canseco has the numbers that would ordinarily make him at least a marginal candidate but his sordid past may prevent him from getting enough votes (5%) to stay on the ballot.

Following is a list of Win Shares for the 32 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold.  2005 and 2006 voting is shown for the holdovers.

                    Win     2005      2005       2006     2006
Player            Shares    Votes     Percent    Votes    Percent
-------           --------  -------   --------   -------  -------
Cal Ripken, Jr.     427    
Tony Gwynn          398
Mark McGwire        342
Andre Dawson        340     273       52.3       317      61.0
Bert Blyleven       339     211       40.9       277      53.3
Dave Parker         327      65       12.6        76      14.4
Alan Trammel        318      87       16.9        92      17.7
Harold Baines       307        
Dale Murphy         294      54       10.5        56      10.8
Tommy John          289     123       23.8       154      29.6
Jim Rice            282     307       59.5       337      64.8
Tony Fernandez      280
Steve Garvey        279     106       20.5       135      26.0
Jose Canseco        272
Dave Concepcion     269      55       10.7        65      12.5
Bobby Bonilla       267
Don Mattingly       263      59       11.4        64      12.3
Paul O’Neill        259
Wally Joiner        253
Albert Belle        243                           40       7.7
Ken Caminiti        242
Jack Morris         225     172       33.3       214      41.2
Eric Davis          224
Goose Gossage       223     285       55.2       336      64.6
Orel Hershiser      210                           58      11.2
Devon White         207
Lee Smith           198     200       38.8       234      45.0
Bret Saberhagen     193
Jay Buhner          174
Dante Bichette      168
Scott Brosius       111
Bobby Witt          102

The last 10 players elected by the Baseball Writers have averaged 342 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by only Ripken and Gwynn on the ballot this year.

Player                 Year        Win Shares
---------------        -----      -------------   
Dave Winfield          2001           415
Kirby Puckett          2001           281
Ozzie Smith            2002           325
Gary Carter            2003           337
Eddie Murray           2003           437
Paul Molitor           2004           414
Dennis Eckersley       2004           301
Wade Boggs             2005           394
Ryne Sandberg          2005           346
Bruce Sutter           2006           168
                                     ------
Average                               342

Conclusions: 

1. Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn will easily be elected by the Baseball Writers this year.  Some have speculated that Ripken might set the record for the highest percentage of votes, now held by Tom Seaver with 98.84%. His .340 career on-base percentage could be an obstacle to voters that place special emphasis on first ballot election.

2. Mark McGwire will not come close but will remain on the ballot and could get elected in the future.  If he is not elected, he will be the only eligible player with over 500 home runs not in the Hall.

3. None of the holdovers will receive enough votes for election.

4. Blyleven and Gossage will continue to move up but will fall short.  They could be positioned for election next year when Tim Raines is the only strong new candidate.

5. Rice will continue to fall short because of his relatively short career.

6. Some other newcomers (Baines, Bonilla, O’Neill) could get enough votes to remain on the ballot.  However, a stronger candidate last year, Will Clark, did not get enough votes to remain on the ballot.

7. There will not be a groundswell of support for Scott Brosius and Bobby Witt.

If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Ripken, Gwynn, Blyleven, Trammell and Gossage.  If I were on the Veterans Committee, I would vote for Gil Hodges, Ron Santo and Minnie Minoso and I would try to figure out some way to get Buck O’Neil in.  

 
 
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