cost of ciprofloxacin drops buy brand silagra buy canada no prescription for aceon lotrisone reviews for men rico rico restaurant ocoee zyban online meds generic augmentin online acai online overnight shipping online canada buy valtrex estrace dosage made obat voltaren gel cefixime without a prescription cialis sublingual online from canada why can;t i get levothroid levitra plus order in the us buy drugs online from canada no prescription very cheap nolvadex viramune buy furosemide mg tablet mail order colchicine birth control pills liver hemangioma best price for real lamisil altace medication online revatio precio mexico prometrium drug store online viagra black belt nitrofurantoin 40mg stats group houston tx genuine viagra from spain is doxycycline a strong antibiotic nymphomax price 9-cell 100 whr lithium-ion battery order tenormin from uk without prescription can you get high off diclofenac potassium how to take 60 mg accutane clonidine patch max dose beconase aq with paypal payment risperdal medication overnight delivery levitra professional no prrescription how to take yasmin 21 day pack buy nexium with no prescription prednisone tablets from buy best post cycle therapy supplements walmart alliston pharmacy diarex mg no prescription isoniazid competitive inhibition buy retin-a ge pills online what is fluoxetine tablets for cialis jelly online order how to buy alesse in london buy pulmicort flexhaler 180 mcg buy glucotrol xl canadian pharmacy best viagra alternatives regenon 60 mg prospect viagra soft for men in usa sale unisom free coupon for doxycycline viagra plus for dogs buy wellbutrin generic name brand indian generics online allegra compare prices kamagra soft altace over the counter canada american ginseng side effects women purchase innopran xl what is the mechanism of action for cozaar miglior sito per comprare viagra pfizer vgr 100 blue pill van i buy viagra over the counter in canada antabuse from india mexico colchicine buy metronidazole for dogs online uk digoxin on line for sale no script long term side effects of paxil in women elocon cream price australia fucidin order online low avalide order viagra no prescription airmail buy prednisone in singapore buy abilify online cheap antipsychotic where to buy neo medrol in the uk is there a generic for levothroid hydrea over the couter cost of finasteride without insurance cialis sublingual prices buy ortho tri cyclen tablets canada digoxin and low potassium acticin pills online in the canada online levitra prescription amoxicillin without prescriptions uk post cycle therapy tricor paxil canada overnight delivery german remedies pharma ltd help with plavix prescription singulair over the counter uk medicine neurontin capsules what class of drugs is cleocin finax pas cher do catholic hospitals pay for viagra purchasesuhagra in india colchicine pharmacy accutane iron tablets get florinef las vegas order ditropan xl online buy cefixime without rx what is the average cost of cialis nizoral canada sale price increase doxycycline dosage of amitriptyline for cats purim results forum cialis pills for sale uk online drug arthritis diet plan mayo clinic ranitidine dose rabbits valacyclovir hcl 500 mg uses ginseng prices v-gel prices cvs how much amitriptyline to get high roxithromycin discount medications diferencia entre culturismo y fitness lov cost eurax snafi in uae how long is the shelf life of cephalexin can you buy cialis jelly in ireland canadian pharmacy pharmacy express online buy cialis jelly 20 what is rumalaya liniment for lithium ion car starter battery for sale propecia dose response proventil weight gain celexa vs prozac reviews acquistare omnicef in italia discount meclizine of canada diclofenaco de potassio pra que serve valtrex roche precio argentina bringing back prescription drugs from mexico best pharmacy to order pariet what is the dose of folic acid to use with methotrexate therapy for rheumatoid arthritis ringworm medication over the counter for cats no prescription medication generic accutane nymphomax 100mg cheep free erection pills uk isoptin next day delivery generic synthroid canada cheap ciprofloxacin 500mg how much does accutane cost uk feldene lowest price obat voltaren emulgel generic for actos 10 mg light blue pill with watson 349 best generic lopid review sertralina efectos dejar tomarla cheap us online deltasone buy mentat ds syrup uk paxil no prescription canada silagra on the internet benadryl drugs for sale how long does colchicine take to work can cialis pills be split in half chain pharmacy stores in canada cost comparison of viagra levitra and cialis alli lowest price viagra suppliers craigslist newcastle ca antivert generic 2013 drugs keflex from usa nolvadex before and after exelon from india crestor prescription assistance programs buy xenical greece canadian cialis professional online painkillers without prescription the online drugstore bupropion valsartan 80 mg hyzaar no prescription buy generic how to get prednisone out of your system what are the four forces of nature from strongest to weakest buy levaquin 15mg online generic ginseng overnite shipping rosuvastatin comprar hydrea shop net levitra 40mg which uk site to buy eurax nolvadex online order to buy astelin nasal spray pharmacy erythromycin generic eryc buy depakote no prescription side effects of colospa retard drug market order cordarone levitra 10mg picture legal buy augmentin online canada genuine celebrex 100mg what class of medication is abilify eurax over the couter +nizagara albuterol fat loss dosage can you buy rumalaya over the counter user reviews for xenical drugs weight top 10 brands of metformin in india viagra online cialis free ceftin 50mg tablets norvasc generic walmart hyzaar now co uk cheap antabuse per pill generic differin in order acne buy generic astelin with bonus best penegra prices licensed pharmacy levitra super active motrin 400 mg price buying cialis online review benzac generic reviews fast zetia delivery floxin without prescription miami rosuvastatin dose equivalence side effects of endep medication tadalafil and cialis the same can you buy tetracycline over the counter in germany best place to buy valtrex in mexico propranolol dose for anxiety tegretol class action lawsuit online pharmacy buy tetracycline fda mg metoprolol spc emc side effects of proventil albuterol cvs shopper puerto rico diovan without prescription brand name rumalaya online coreg online bestellen purchase brand viagra on line in canada levaquin noprescrition needed usa online pharmacy tricor usa sale hytrin woldwide shipping maximum metformin dose daily how to take ciprofloxacin for uti health canada tretinoin 0,05 mircette acne danner boots promo code 2011 deltasone discount code comprar imitrex portugal aciphex over the counter reflux drug generic from epivir-hbv augmentin roche precio argentina buy erexin-v online pharmacy overnight accepted cheap nolvadex what is augmentin duo tablets xeloda dose reduction what is alliance data buy generic cialis tadalafil walmart alli pills buy antidepressants online uk depakote order canada minocin drugs for sale comprar fincar online what is revia drugs lady era online australia viagra reviews online buy generic doxycycline online with prescription tadacip no prescription prescription drug wellbutrin sr nolvadex pills sweat methylprednisolone tablets 4 mg usp how long does it take for actos to start working what is prednisolone tablets used for promethazine codeine syrup in canada buy generic ampicillin with bonus india no prescription pharmacy what happens if i miss a clomid dose can order zerit online generic lady era usa pharmacy who makes metformin medicine pet prescription medicine uk benadryl 100mg tablet generic viagra super active cost can you get high off aleve d how to get viagra for cheap buy canadian drugs without prescription cialis professional brands india depakote next day shipping comprar estrace pela internet do i need a prescription for aristocort cleocin gel by mail uk version of atacand cheapest metoclopramide clozaril generic india allegra drums for sale printable ventolin coupon 2011 how to use methotrexate injection famciclovir price how to buy stromectol generic viagra soft review buy kamagra 100mg oral jelly australia sildenafil propecia prescriptions online buy live chickens list of tesco stores selling benemid zestril 10 mg cost alli price at rite aid buy topamax in the uk lamisil prices tablets cialis super active 40 mg pharmacy depakote cost without insurance priligy dapoxetine online ordering abilify uk discount lincocin otc can i buy lansoprazole over the counter discount maxalt online puerto rico school of pharmacy tuition costco leicester directions buy cabergoline online no prescription buy probalan visa pfizer viagra patent 2019 buy advair diskus in ireland onde comprar roacutan rio de janeiro azithromycin uses in children buying prescriptions from canada legal reglan 40 mg dose lowest price haridra trazodone shop tulasi australia pharmacy proventil over counter uk rocaltrol uk online neurontin from usa pharmacy generic name antipsychotic medication clozaril generic viagra reviews forum pill shop 100mg dulcolax printable coupons 2011 low price bupropion uk ceftin 250 mg prescription solutions client login Purchase nolvadex 10 mg percocet erowid experience vault cialis super active medicine doxycycline hyclate capsules for acne zyban dosage twice a day cost of danazol where to buy stromectol drugs online very cheap omnicef cialis super active pas cher italie original meclizine online tablet for long time sex in india depo medrol 20 mg cats where to buy olanzapine canada how to dose nolvadex for pct best medicine for anxiety without depression aldactone with no rx half price naprosyn where can i buy prevacid online neurontin for sale philippines how much does zocor cost without insurance turkish pharmacies for viagra acheter nymphomax how to purchase elocon how to buy albendazole online what is doxycycline monohydrate used for viagra in mexican pharmacies price increase lamictal mentax next day delivery through buy alesse order acquisto viagra plus sicuro online buy lozol goes you order decadron canadian acheter anafranil pas cher kamagra cheap australia pharmacy nike air max leopard print uk side effects on zentel ndc for depo-medrol 40 mg ditropan without prescription miami ephedraxin in the uk now olanzapine injection india acivir flomax prescription side effects yagara from usa pharmacy mircette weight gain what is the normal dose for wellbutrin xl protonix with no rx trazodone sleep medications what quantity of aspirin is contained in most over the counter aspirin products what is mentax bupropion xl 300 mg mylan sinequan tablets uses where do i zantac in canada generic ceftin india toradol iv how long does it last ovulos flagyl precio can order fml forte canada is generic synthroid as effective as name brand mexican pharmacies online no prescription scat anxiety test cheapest price for asacol alliance and leicester standing order form half price luvox can buy allegra online isoniazid fda approved to buy without prescription doxazosin maximum dose order non generic nizagara we need to talk about kevin imdb buy topamax boots pharmacy buy online protonix generic can you buy kamagra chewable blood pressure medicine diltiazem how to import ditropan cytotec dose to induced abortion where do i colchicine in india aleve medicine dosage cheap genuine tadapox online motilium perth australia lamictal pill shortage revatio pharmacies buy generic phenergan with bonus protonix refill pack robaxin drugstore lamisil commercial propecia dangerous pregnant women cheapest price synthroid amitriptyline 10mg prices cipla field mail server non prescription ventolin inhaler cipro coupons order periactin syrup cheap generic online venlor generic effexor xr for sale on line diltiazem coupons can you buy methotrexate over the counter buying diabecon in manchester where to buy snovitra super power in canada safely alli dosage information generic zebeta cost best online pharmacy canada no prescription what does viagra do to men yahoo buy wellbutrin sr 200mg side effects of actos 15 mg lipitor brand positioning rogaine 5 dosage too high retin-a cheap albendazole online overnight delivery gazeta kosovarja 2008 aricept dosage forms how to take forzest cheapest pharmacy buy altace we need to talk about kevin non prescription lasix pharmacy buy florinef paypal accepted lisinopril reviews and dosage what is celadrin made from diclofenac pill canadian buy carafate hong kong low price hoodia uk promethazine uk brand names calan online how long does it take for accutane to work yahoo pharmacy has best price nolvadex precose side effects carafate drug cost where diarex airmail online xeloda delivery london are there legit online pharmacies buy alligator clips hair hair clips headbands tetracycline side effects weight gain zovirax uk price danazol online forum tadacip generic wikipedia drugs pharmacy that sells nexium buy medrol online australia no prescription medrol dose pack package insert midamor visa acheter viagra montreal propranolol online cheap research tadalafil ic 351 medication without prescription drugs best site to buy tamoxifen is generic liposafe effective finasteride prostate cancer 2012 ponstel drug class viagra new price canada cheap rx frames why can;t you drink alcohol with flagyl diuretic hydrochlorothiazide weight loss prilosec generic costco comprar cyklokapron original en madrid buyers of suhagra canada walmart alli weight loss can bystolic get you high uk version of adalat cafergot medication for migraine allegra d in the uk better than tamoxifen flagyl 500 mg film tablet how to use aspirin for dandruff tretinoin gel online no prescription buy alesse cheap online pharmacy drugs cheap generic hytrin buy abana online overnight delivery where to buy liquid tadalafil 20mg cheapest tretinoin 0,05 cost of norvasc bactrim tablets from buy best generic viagra website why has premarin been discontinued lasix drip max dose seroquel 10 mg cialis professional online mexico what is citalopram 10mg tablets formula 1 live buy amaryl overseas bupropion weight gain side effects what is half inderal la 80 mg for where to get yagara buspin help you sleep diclofenac buy on line buy amitriptyline tablets uk canadian can we trust silagra online buy promethazine boots generic name for floxin omifin precio 2013 buy kamagra in canada can you buy brand levitra in ireland online pill store cialis buy neurontin online from usa do i need a prescription for ventolin in australia forum baclofene boulimie keppra generic brand buy diclofenac for daily use lamisil delivery buy amoxil amoxicillin online pharmacy alli tablets 40mg buy apcalis sx from mexico online capoten 50mg tablets cheap nexium prescription omifin clomid buy tadacip mexican pharmacies antabuse online uk pravachol women buy buy augmentin xr online prilosec otc prices indian pharmacy provera can you buy lamisil tegretol 40 mg pharmacy where can i buy diflucan online without a prescription buy augmentin hong kong buy allopurinol 7.5 without rx canadian pharmacy board
Home Lance Gurewitz GUREWITZ: The Angels and Big Numbers Don’t Mix

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 813 guests online

Atom RSS

GUREWITZ: The Angels and Big Numbers Don’t Mix PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 9
PoorBest 
Lance Gurewitz Article Archive
Written by Lance Gurewitz   
Tuesday, 25 January 2011 08:34

“If I'm going to spend $20 million [on Carl Crawford] and go to $144 million without taking care of the bullpen or third base, as a fan, when do you get to the place where you say, 'What are my expectations of the owner, and what am I willing to pay for a ticket?'” –Arte Moreno (Source: Los Angeles Times)

What, indeed, Mr. Moreno?

As expressed previously on The Biz of Baseball, backing away from Carl Crawford’s megadeal was understandable when the money had a chance to be well spent elsewhere. Spending only conservatively on relievers makes plenty of sense, too, although one might argue that is not quite what the Angels did with their multi-year signings of Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi. Third base, though, was a painfully obvious place to invest. If the Angels had signed Adrian Beltre at the same terms the Rangers did, he would have been directly replacing a replacement-level combination of third basemen at a cost of $14 million for the first year, setting a break-even point of about 2.7 WAR, which essentially remains the break-even point throughout the contract. Beltre has produced less than 2.5 WAR just once since his first full season in 1999, and that was in 2001. He has a median 3.9 WAR since then and, by the way, is fresh off a 7.1 WAR mark last year, demonstrating that his bat is still a force outside of Seattle and making his contract a calculated risk well worth taking.

The Angels had taken plenty of heat already for their failure to catch either of their seemingly clear top two free agent targets. Initially, at least Moreno had his principles and lower ticket prices to which he could cling for the hope of good PR. Those did nothing for the Angels’ playoff chances, naturally, but even for a big market team, there are worse offenses than being risk-averse.

Then, it happened.

In one fell swoop, the Angels rid themselves of two relatively cheap, useful pieces, Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli, in order to take on one of the consensus worst contracts in Major League Baseball, that of Vernon Wells. Due to the significant backloading of Wells’ deal, this increases the Angels’ 2011 payroll from what it would have been before the trade by approximately $11.5-12.5 million, depending on Napoli’s arbitration outcome. From 2012 onward, the commitment is simply Wells’ salary since the Angels could have had the option to non-tender Napoli after 2011 if they really wanted to save money, or Napoli would become eligible for free agency after 2012. In other words, accounting for the shed Rivera contract and lack of commitment to Napoli, the Angels committed something like $75 million to Wells over the next four years.

Note that Adrian Beltre is only making $62 million over those four years. Oh, and Carl Crawford is only making $74 million.

Now, it would be (quite literally) short-sighted to compare Wells’ deal to only the first four years of Beltre and Crawford’s contracts since, obviously, the ends of those contracts are what makes them most daunting. However, Moreno’s argument for avoiding Crawford was that he would have to raise ticket prices; that argument is driven by the annual salary commitment, not the fact that the deal extends three extra years. Plus, as is well established by research in sabermetrics and sports economics, fans—especially in big markets—are willing to pay more for a superior product. Two years down the road, the Angels’ payroll will be just as high as it would have been if they had signed Crawford or Beltre, and the fans probably will not be nearly as excited to pay the difference.

As for the risk of those extra years on each deal, all of it can be analyzed somewhat conceptually. To earn his contract, as described previously, Adrian Beltre does not even need to match his career average performance. The expectations of Beltre, using a 5% revenue growth estimate, are essentially as follows:

2011: $14 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2012: $15 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2013: $16 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2014: $17 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2015: $18 million, $6.4MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2016:
$16 million, $6.7MM/fWAR = 2.4 fWAR

The Angels’ would-be expectations of Crawford, then, are as follows. (Note: These are slightly different than Boston’s expectations due to the luxury tax.)

2011: $14 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2012: $19.5 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 3.5 fWAR
2013: $20 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 3.4 fWAR
2014: $20.25 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 3.3 fWAR
2015: $20.5 million, $6.4MM/fWAR = 3.2 fWAR
2016:
$20.75 million, $6.7MM/fWAR = 3.1 fWAR

2017: $21 million, $7.035MM/fWAR = 3.0 fWAR

Finally, the Angels’ expectations of the Vernon Wells trade, including the salary shifts described above and the realignment of the Angels’ left field/catcher/DH situation:

2011: $12 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.3 fWAR
2012: $21 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 3.8 fWAR
2013: $21 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 3.6 fWAR
2014: $21 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 3.4 fWAR

This is where intuition comes into play a bit more in the absence of strong projection systems. Nonetheless, few would argue with the claim that Crawford and especially Beltre are significantly more likely to exceed their contract values than Wells, especially in the first four years. Wells’ 2010 season provides the sole glimmer of hope, as he bounced back to 4.0 WAR after accumulating just 3.0 WAR total from 2007-09. Still, there is significant risk that he never reaches that level again, a stark contrast to Beltre and Crawford, who appear poised to outplay the first several years of their contracts with relative ease. Whether the surplus value they create early on will justify the closing years of their contracts is difficult to say, but at least their teams can be confident that some amount of surplus value is on its way.

So what does this mean for Arte Moreno? What should the fans say when the owner goes to $75 million for the wrong player, still without taking care of third base? Well, they should say what they are saying right now, and they should stop wanting to pay. In the future, Mr. Moreno, put wins on the field, and do so not stingily, but wisely, whether that involves big contracts or not. Supply and demand will take care of the rest.


Lance Gurewitz is currently a freshman at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He also serves as the MLB Trade Rumors Florida Marlins Team Coordinator. You can read and discuss his baseball analysis and other sports musings in 140 characters or less by following @LanceWG42 on Twitter

Follow The Biz of Baseball on Twitter Twitter

FacebookFollow the Business of Sports Network on Facebook

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?