buy viagra cambodia kemasan cialis 10mg lisinopril 10mg effects buy viagra bournemouth cipro 750 mg kullanimi cheapest valtrex prices nolvadex online australia amoxil online cheap lexapro 5 mg conversion buy nolvadex canada buy nexium generic import generic viagra generic viagra classifieds cialis canada 20mg lisinopril 10 mg results kgr 100 generic viagra cytotec 0.2 mg ulotka buy lasix tabs nexium tablets generic generic viagra 150 mg. nexium granule generic generic valtrex availability viagra 100mg fta levitra bucodispersable 10 mg cialis 20 mg overdose lasix 200 mg 20 mg lexapro value clomid 150 mg jumeaux 40 mg levitra cost metformin.axcount 850 mg cialis 5 mg precio generic nexium manufacturer levitra viagra online guaranteed cheapest kamagra order viagra line metformin 850 mg dosage clomid 100 mg bijwerkingen 50 mg clomid pregnancy 80 mg of propranolol 5mg cialis dose zoloft australia buy synthroid .05 mg generic cialis authentic viagra online br buy 80 mg cialis cipro xl buy metformin 1000 mg kosten cheap viagra active viagra alternative cheap buy cialis italy 40 mg de prednisone celebrex 300 mg levitra generic 20 mg 10mg cialis effect zithromax 40mg ml doxycycline buy price cheapest levitra uk 100mg clomid uk cialis 20 mg faydalari clomid 100mg bula synthroid generic image medication celebrex 200mg doxycycline 50 mg akne buy amoxil usa generic lexapro equivalent cipla generic propecia cialis 25mg image levitra schmelztablette 10 mg buyin nolvadex ireland buy indian viagra sandoz lisinopril 40 mg metformin online order nolvadex shop online lexapro 10 mg 20 mg nexium 10 mg indicaciones 1700 mg metformin 5 mg generic cialis zoloft online pharmacy cheapest doxycycline uk diflucan 200 mg yeast levitra oat 10mg lexapro 20 mg sleep prednisone dogs buy 500 mg generic viagra lexapro gotas 10mg twins 25 mg clomid clomid 50mg tablets metformin 500 mg actavis testimonials generic cialis buy ciprofloxacin cipro cialis 5 mg 2.5mg cheap viagra online medicament levitra 10 mg metformin generic otc zoloft mg tablets precio viagra generico lisinopril 10 mg yahoo viagra 50 mg image buying viagra cheap kamagra london zadorin doxycycline 100mg nexium 40 mg halbieren 20 mg of doxycycline lisinopril generic alternative discounted cialis 20 mg lexapro generic march viagra 50mg prices cialis everyday 20mg cialis 20mg malaysia 2013 viagra 100mg english cialis 100 mg com xenical 120mg usa buying tijuana viagra buy cialis 40 mg buy cialis plus lexapro 10 mg cena costo diflucan 100 mg cheapest xenical uk zithromax 900 mg generic 5 mg propecia buy viagra 100 mg splitting 100mg levitra levitra pills online diflucan 200 mg candida generic propecia fda augmentin 625mg tonsillitis buy viagra 2.5 mg lexapro generic weight generic viagra facts clomid round 3 100mg awp viagra 100mg generic kamagra 18 mg of strattera generics viagra paypal lisinopril 10 mghctz blue cialis 20 mg kullanim propecia onlinea0 purchase cialis 40mg prednisone 10mg tablets 5442 take 2 100 mg viagra cialis take 2 5mg xenical uk online erythromycin capsules 250 mg buy propecia cvs cialis 20 mg costi generic cialis meds 5mg cialis dosage zithromax 500 mg filmtabl generic rx lexapro fungsi glucophage 500 mg metformin xl 1000mg nexium 40 mg 7 price cialis 20mg coupons lisinopril 40 mg pret generic lexapro 5mg 5mg lexapro metformin 500 mg n3 sample generic viagra cheapest viagra 25mg buy tetracycline hydrochloride 10mg lexapro costco viagra 200mg online cipro 500 mg days viagra order free zoloft 50 mg pret buy nolvadex england glucophage 500 mg vidal viagra buy montreal cialis 50 mg hf walgreens online cialis generic levitra advice is hydrochlorothiazide generic buying hydrochlorothiazide lasix 120 mg generic online viagra buying cialis online propranolol hci 40 mg .05 mg of synthroid levitra tablete 10 mg diflucan 200 mg posologia 5mg prednisone safe lisinopril 40 mg tremors clomid online purchase viagra online wien professional viagra buy generic lexapro anxiety 80 mg of lasix buy lasix 20 mg bactrim generic pink order viagra maryland augmentin 500 mg antybiotyk blueberry 100 viagra buy cialis 20 mg tablet cheapest brand viagra propranolol 40 mg tablet formula celebrex 200 mg valtrex dosage 500 mg generic cialis nz generic viagra product glucophage retard 1000mg buy kamagra canada prednisone 500 mg cialis super cheap diflucan 200 mg uses lexapro generic recall glucophage 1000 mg farmaco generic cipro price erythromycin 400 mg dosage cialis 20 online orlando 100mg generic cialis cialis 20 mg prezzi taking 50 mg clomid clomid 100mg pct diflucan 100 mg 40mg branded cialis metformin 250 mg day erfahrung kamagra 100mg metformin 100 mg reviews generic love viagra celebrex 200 mg r celebrex 200mg dosage weaning prednisone 10mg efecto cialis 5mg buy prednisone mexico xenical generico ultrafarma metformin 5 500 mg metformin sr 850 mg xenical cheapest propranolol 40 mg prospect 800mg cialis reivew buy medicaments cialis buy cialis 20 mg 20 mg levitra prices cheap safe viagra propranolol 20 mg tablets 50mg diflucan cheap buspar doxycycline dosage 150 mg buy lasix fast 25 mgs zoloft 500mg zithromax dosages cytotec 600 mg 90 mg prednisone shot online viagra usa valtrex 500mg 30 buy levitra pills online viagra ireland order viagra eu generic lexapro images bactrim forte 480 mg nexium 40 mg valor xenical bestellen online erfahrungsberichte cialis 5mg priligy generico forum 8 tab prednisone 10 mg buy clomid vancouver 500 mg valtrex daily clomid 150mg follicles generic lisinopril tablets lilly cialis 100 mg celebrex 400mg capsules kamagra 25 mg tablet cialis online discoun zovirax 200mg hinta buy generic periactin 200 mg viagra fine nexium 40 mg dosierung buy viagra men buy nexium 10 mg glucophage 500 mg embarazo valtrex generic efficacy nexium 40mg reviews levitra generic online 50 mg clomid 100 mg xenical 250mg viagra 50 mg kullananlar viagra bali buy 150mg clomid twins lexapro 5mg generic cialis 20 mg betrouwbaar bulk buy kamagra cialis 20 mg doses wellbutrin generic 75 mg 5mg lexapro worked glucophage 850 mg posologie generic cialis 10 yellow valtrex cheap nexium 20 mg embarazo buy levitra mg cialis 5 mg 20 mg 50 mg clomid triplets wellbutrin generic vs levitra © original 20 mg nexium 40mg ndc lilly cialis mg 10 cialis uk 5mg prospecto nexium 40 mg 20mg cialis effects strongest generic cialis 50 mg phenergan safe lisinopril 30 mg w953 cialis 50mg buy buspar 10mg wirkung cialis lilly 20 mg lisinopril 10 mg effects synthroid generic pill nexium 40 mg review taking 100mg viagra augmentin 825mg online clinic cialis prescription viagra generic amoxil 500 mg usos generic40mg cialis xenical mail order clomid cyprus 50mg preisvergleich cialis 20 mg 25 mg of phenergan buspar 120 mg medicamento diflucan 150 mg viagra 25 mg precio nolvadex tablets 10mg zithromax 250 mg packungsbeilage cialis generico prospecto traitement clomid 50mg valtrex online canada buy viagra colombia cipro 500mg 1a mail order wellbutrin diflucan 2 pill 150 mg augmentin 875 mg sobres clomid mg ml clomid 100 mg twins preisvergleich viagra 50 mg valtrex vs generic viagra ranbaxy online buy viagra budapest viagra kangaroo online cialis 5 mg after 100 mg viagra orgasm bactrim forte generic take 3 5mg cialis 75 to 100 mg zoloft buy clomid pills levitra buy discount clomid 250 mg lexapro 15mg laboratorio 40 mg cialis dangerous 20mg lisinopril high dapoxetine online australia celebrex caps 200 mg viagra online reputable augmentin 875 mg indicaciones myla lisinopril 2.5 mg phenergan suppository 12.5 mg cialis generico ciao cialis 40mg germany generic substitution cialis viagra 100 mg uputstvo cialis 800mg reviews zovirax 800mg price generic propecia sandoz tetracycline 100 mg day cialis 5mg ultrafarma cialis buying stop zoloft 50 mg zithromax 100 mg 1 tablet doxycycline 100 mg prix levitra 5mg poppers buy cheap synthroid 6generic levitra cheap phenergan 12.5 mg gel propranolol 40 mg galenika buy brand valtrex im phenergan 12.5mg xenical tablets 120mg metformin hexal 1000 mg buy erythromycin canada buy lexapro online propecia generic cvs levitra generic 40 mg viagra 25mg dose best buy viagra cheap celebrex 400 mg strattera overdose tra 150 mg viagra wellbutrin 150 mg tablets viagra usa cheap 20mg lexapro lot clomid dosage150 mg cheap geniue viagra prendre 2 cialis 20mg glucophage 1000 generico viagra online vgr buy viagra oslo online sr wellbutrin cialis 5mg journalier safest cialis online Online Levitra 20 mg levitra 10 mg uso cialis 10 mg cipla xenical buy uk controindicazioni cialis 5 mg metformin 500mg indication strattera 20mg viagra comprar online cialis 20 mg nederland buy viagra maryland xenical 180mg propranolol 40 mg preis generic propecia effective synthroid verses generic cialis 5 mg statins were 2 buy viagra mejor generico viagra order cytotec online cialis 400 mg metformin hcl 50mg order diflucan roerig 150 lexapro generic celexa celebrex 200 mg generic online shop kamagra levitra 10 mg paypal prednisone 20 mg for generic zoloft 25 mg cialis da 100 mg lexapro 5mg generic levitra 20 mg geneic nexium dosage 20 mg order diflucan canada buy sildenafil dapoxetine cialis 5 mg cpr 28 kamagra 800mg tabletki 5 mg levitra nexium tab 40mg 10 mg levitra reviews prix kamagra 100mg propecia generic finasteride doxycycline 100mg women generic cipro online lexapro 15mg preco cialis 5mg nasil 36 hr cialis 20 mg generic tadalafil cialis lisinopril ivax 20 mg 400 mg celebrex safe generic lexapro usa prednisone 50 mg sciatica the cheapest kamagra wat kamagra 100mg priligy 30mg review cialis 20 mg preturi generic metformin 500 mg valtrex generic wiki clomid 150mg success pret augmentin 1000 mg cialis 1mg tab glucophage 500mg kamagra 100mg gebruik preis celebrex 200mg nolvadex 20 mg generic generic viagra order generic viagra coupons buy bactrim generic metformin hcl generic get cialis online lasix generic form nexium 20 mg online propranolol 40 mg retard amoxil 500mg bula viagra online makedonija generic viagra line lexapro 20 to 30 mg nome generico xenical 10 mg cialis brand cialis online online diflucan order propecia pills generic augmentin 875 cytotec tab 0 2 mg erythromycin dosage 250 mg generico do priligy cheap levitra overnight propecia online purchase augmentin hap 1000 mg metformin 500 mg purpose generica viagra buy viagra overcounter generic viagra experiences bactrim 200 40 mg dawkowanie cheap synthroid online clomid 100mg days 2 7 cialis 20mg erfahrung 20 celexa citalopram mg apo doxycycline 100mg existe priligy generico order glucophage xl cialis 20 mg 30 tb viagra 150 mg kaufen cialis 20 mg wirkungen bactrim en generico
Home Lance Gurewitz GUREWITZ: The Angels and Big Numbers Don’t Mix

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 1126 guests online

Atom RSS

GUREWITZ: The Angels and Big Numbers Don’t Mix PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 9
PoorBest 
Lance Gurewitz Article Archive
Written by Lance Gurewitz   
Tuesday, 25 January 2011 08:34

“If I'm going to spend $20 million [on Carl Crawford] and go to $144 million without taking care of the bullpen or third base, as a fan, when do you get to the place where you say, 'What are my expectations of the owner, and what am I willing to pay for a ticket?'” –Arte Moreno (Source: Los Angeles Times)

What, indeed, Mr. Moreno?

As expressed previously on The Biz of Baseball, backing away from Carl Crawford’s megadeal was understandable when the money had a chance to be well spent elsewhere. Spending only conservatively on relievers makes plenty of sense, too, although one might argue that is not quite what the Angels did with their multi-year signings of Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi. Third base, though, was a painfully obvious place to invest. If the Angels had signed Adrian Beltre at the same terms the Rangers did, he would have been directly replacing a replacement-level combination of third basemen at a cost of $14 million for the first year, setting a break-even point of about 2.7 WAR, which essentially remains the break-even point throughout the contract. Beltre has produced less than 2.5 WAR just once since his first full season in 1999, and that was in 2001. He has a median 3.9 WAR since then and, by the way, is fresh off a 7.1 WAR mark last year, demonstrating that his bat is still a force outside of Seattle and making his contract a calculated risk well worth taking.

The Angels had taken plenty of heat already for their failure to catch either of their seemingly clear top two free agent targets. Initially, at least Moreno had his principles and lower ticket prices to which he could cling for the hope of good PR. Those did nothing for the Angels’ playoff chances, naturally, but even for a big market team, there are worse offenses than being risk-averse.

Then, it happened.

In one fell swoop, the Angels rid themselves of two relatively cheap, useful pieces, Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli, in order to take on one of the consensus worst contracts in Major League Baseball, that of Vernon Wells. Due to the significant backloading of Wells’ deal, this increases the Angels’ 2011 payroll from what it would have been before the trade by approximately $11.5-12.5 million, depending on Napoli’s arbitration outcome. From 2012 onward, the commitment is simply Wells’ salary since the Angels could have had the option to non-tender Napoli after 2011 if they really wanted to save money, or Napoli would become eligible for free agency after 2012. In other words, accounting for the shed Rivera contract and lack of commitment to Napoli, the Angels committed something like $75 million to Wells over the next four years.

Note that Adrian Beltre is only making $62 million over those four years. Oh, and Carl Crawford is only making $74 million.

Now, it would be (quite literally) short-sighted to compare Wells’ deal to only the first four years of Beltre and Crawford’s contracts since, obviously, the ends of those contracts are what makes them most daunting. However, Moreno’s argument for avoiding Crawford was that he would have to raise ticket prices; that argument is driven by the annual salary commitment, not the fact that the deal extends three extra years. Plus, as is well established by research in sabermetrics and sports economics, fans—especially in big markets—are willing to pay more for a superior product. Two years down the road, the Angels’ payroll will be just as high as it would have been if they had signed Crawford or Beltre, and the fans probably will not be nearly as excited to pay the difference.

As for the risk of those extra years on each deal, all of it can be analyzed somewhat conceptually. To earn his contract, as described previously, Adrian Beltre does not even need to match his career average performance. The expectations of Beltre, using a 5% revenue growth estimate, are essentially as follows:

2011: $14 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2012: $15 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2013: $16 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2014: $17 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2015: $18 million, $6.4MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2016:
$16 million, $6.7MM/fWAR = 2.4 fWAR

The Angels’ would-be expectations of Crawford, then, are as follows. (Note: These are slightly different than Boston’s expectations due to the luxury tax.)

2011: $14 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2012: $19.5 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 3.5 fWAR
2013: $20 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 3.4 fWAR
2014: $20.25 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 3.3 fWAR
2015: $20.5 million, $6.4MM/fWAR = 3.2 fWAR
2016:
$20.75 million, $6.7MM/fWAR = 3.1 fWAR

2017: $21 million, $7.035MM/fWAR = 3.0 fWAR

Finally, the Angels’ expectations of the Vernon Wells trade, including the salary shifts described above and the realignment of the Angels’ left field/catcher/DH situation:

2011: $12 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.3 fWAR
2012: $21 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 3.8 fWAR
2013: $21 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 3.6 fWAR
2014: $21 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 3.4 fWAR

This is where intuition comes into play a bit more in the absence of strong projection systems. Nonetheless, few would argue with the claim that Crawford and especially Beltre are significantly more likely to exceed their contract values than Wells, especially in the first four years. Wells’ 2010 season provides the sole glimmer of hope, as he bounced back to 4.0 WAR after accumulating just 3.0 WAR total from 2007-09. Still, there is significant risk that he never reaches that level again, a stark contrast to Beltre and Crawford, who appear poised to outplay the first several years of their contracts with relative ease. Whether the surplus value they create early on will justify the closing years of their contracts is difficult to say, but at least their teams can be confident that some amount of surplus value is on its way.

So what does this mean for Arte Moreno? What should the fans say when the owner goes to $75 million for the wrong player, still without taking care of third base? Well, they should say what they are saying right now, and they should stop wanting to pay. In the future, Mr. Moreno, put wins on the field, and do so not stingily, but wisely, whether that involves big contracts or not. Supply and demand will take care of the rest.


Lance Gurewitz is currently a freshman at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He also serves as the MLB Trade Rumors Florida Marlins Team Coordinator. You can read and discuss his baseball analysis and other sports musings in 140 characters or less by following @LanceWG42 on Twitter

Follow The Biz of Baseball on Twitter Twitter

FacebookFollow the Business of Sports Network on Facebook

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?