brand cialis 10mg doxycycline buy overnight cialis 25 mg 14 st cialis generica doxycycline 25mg feline cialis generico legale prednisone 5 mg benefits yahoo online viagra metformin 1000 mg tabletta reputable clomid online viagra 1 cpr 50 mg order phenergan online propecia online uk online viagra siparis viagra 25mg young proscar propecia online Cialis 20mg 30 Tabs lisinopril buy cheap generic valtrex dosage levitra 10 mg 2 compresse drug lexapro 10 mg zithromax 500mg cyprus indicaciones diflucan 150 mg albuterol generic ventolin lasix 20 mg iw generic drugs nexium levitra 20 mg siparis pauto cialis 20 mg generic 10mg levitra viagra online guide buying cialis legally cheap viagra farmacia online kamagra xenical 500mg 200 mg doxycycline dog generic cialis comparison wellbutrin 500 mg manfaat doxycycline 100mg lisinopril nombre generico cheap legal cialis ip nolvadex 20mg cheap cialis auckland levitra cheap australia fluconazole generic diflucan viagra 100mg usa buy viagra manila lexapro 10 mg tabs buy cheap celebrex strattera 60 mg prix cialis safe online cialis generic brand buuy strattera 100mg efeitos viagra 25mg india cialis online pharmacy viagra online viagra 50 mg fiyat buy Cialis 120 diflucan fluconazole generic duree cialis 5mg doxycycline generic brand doxycycline 100mg kaufen clomid order online 2011 zovirax 200 mg hinta apo prednisone 50 mg viagra generic forum viagra generic cialis lexaprovs generic lexapro fabricante cialis generico doxycycline 100mg spc buy nexium coupon 20 mg cialis safe clomid 50 mg success viagra 25 mg efectos cheap viagra pompharmacy prednisone tablets 20 mg buying cialis dublin propecia purchase generic viagra 100 mg bijsluiter generic viagra .55 doxycycline 100mg francais generic nexium safe 5 mg of levitra propecia 0 5 mg buy kamagra manchester buy fda cialis propecia 1mg kroger prijzen cialis 5 mg xenical 120 mg seattle prednisone 20 mg acne lexapro online store lasix 40 mg im strattera 5 mg pret nogales generic viagra prices cialis 5 mg online viagra danger cialis dapoxetine cheap order levitra usa doxycycline 100mg human cheap generic lexapro zovirax generic for taking 40mg levitra hydrochlorothiazide 15 mg cialis 200 mg prezzo cialis 20 mg 12 filmtabletten viagra 100mg kaina hydrochlorothiazide tabs 12.5mg manfaat propranolol 10 mg brand viagra buy cialis online questions manfaat levitra 5 mg nolvadex tabletas 20 mg order valtrex overnight clomid twins 25mg cialis 5 mg generico cialis precio 10 mg augmentin 500 mg indicaciones cialis 5 mg vademecum taking 2 150 mg wellbutrin highest mg strattera erfahrung cialis 10mg kamagra 100.mg srpski order cialis pils cialis 5 mg or 10 priligy 30 mg review price cialis 10 mg propecia buy australia wellbutrin generic companies wellbutrin 10 mg clomid 150 online cialis professionnel 20 mg online viagra legit generic viagra wiki generic lexapro safe 1000 augmentin 1000mg nexium 40 mg kullananlar viagra 25 mg ausreichend novo prednisone 50mg buy viagra ebay the cheapest lexapro clomid buy buy levitra nz buy viagra wolfi lisinopril 10 mg used nolvadex 10mg bula propecia brand 5mg priligy 60 mg filmtabletten split 20mg cialis youtube buy viagra prednisone 50mg tablet buying viagra yahoo buy brand cialis true generic viagra 200mg clomid 150 mg. generic viagra nexium online best to buy prednisone doxycycline 500mg erythromycin 250 mg dosage taking lexapro 20mg generic 25mg viagra cialis generique 10mg order nolvadex online propranolol actavis 10 mg viagra cost 50 mg posologia nexium 40 mg celebrex 200 mg purpose buy viagra bangkok 2013 generic cialis mexico xenical 120 mg 168 caps generic viagra safe using cialis 20mg propecia coupons online cialis 100mg effets celebrex cap 100mg generic wellbutrin 75 mg buy nexium cheap cialis france online lisinopril 5mg packungsbeilage buy augmentin 500 doxycycline trihydrate 750 mg buy lexapro forum taking generic cialis buy synthroid medication viagra 25 mg safe cialis professional buy nexium 40mg espanol prednisone 5mg hematoma buy nolvadex 30 pills danger online viagra levitra cialis online clomid online generic propranolol bula 10mg generic priligy tablets citalopram lexapro generic buy lisinopril uk cheap viagra brand lisinopril 10 mg day lexapro generic online superactive cialis 40 mg finax generic propecia viagra 25 mg pris synthroid 25 mg bula viagra sample online cialis 100 mg 20 mg propecia 1mg thailand generic levitra prices cialis 40 mg hrvatska lexapro generic patent zovirax 800 mg posologie bulk buy1000 viagra buspar 30 mg high metformin 1000 mg benefits 100mg cialis desciption buy propranolol canada precio levitra 5mg lexapro tab 10mg generic levitra 10 mg glucophage to buy generic valtrex efficacy generic to valtrex 200mg generic cialis buy viagra discretely buy viagra overseas buy viagra forums cialis 5 mg dosaggio lasix 2 5 mg viagra dubai buy celebrex 40mg priligy generico ecuador cialis 5 mg efecto zithromax online generic lisinopril 20mg tab qualitest lisinopril 20 mg viagra online betrug viagra cheap online generic levitra available augmentin 500 mg duration prednisone 50 mg alcohol cialis 30 mg erection cipro 100 mg cialis online france buy nolvadex kroger cipro 750 mg chymidia buy nolvadex steroid le cialis 5mg xenical generico prezzi taking 200 mg viagra exporters generic viagra bactrim generic for xenical 120 mg indication 150 mg viagra dangers zovirax suspension 200mg cheapest viagra philippine fda generic viagra levitra 10 mg prices clomid online overnight strattera generic availability cheap price propecia clomid generic walgreens prednisone 1omg were buy cytotec order cialis paypal generic levitra cheapest generic diflucan walgreens nexium generic there viagra online sa buy viagra algodones buy levitra ecuador viagra online nachnahme online pharmacy levitra cialis ftbl 5mg 250 mg wellbutrin sr buy viagra separately cialis 20 mg effect prednisone 300 mg phenergan 50 mg suppository kamagra wholesalers online cheap strong viagra review nexium 40 mg cialis de 50 mg prix nexium 20mg buy viagra nl lexapro generic 40 mg generic lexapro cheap cialis online ordering periactin 4mg maroc levitra 10 mg pret canadian cialis generic viagra generic safety online cialis cheap lisinopril 10 mg history doxycycline 100 mg sinus medikamente levitra 20mg zithromax 500mg bula alli orlistat 200mg cialis 5 mg bestellen cheap cheap cialis zithromax 2mg cheap 100mg cialis zoloft withdrawal 200 mg buy prescribed cialis nexium 40 mg dosaggio zoloft 100 mg pill buy zithromax wholesale cialis 20 mg prezzo metformin 1500 mg viagra 200 mg. order cialis prescription cheap 25 mg viagra buy cipro drops lexapro generic release doxycycline 50 mg price cheap propecia prescriptions clomid 100mg tablets order cialis super lexapro 10mg receita bactrim dose mg cipro vs generic 40mg cialis online genuine 100 mg viagra free cheap viagra zovirax 400 mg tabletten prednisone 10 mg acne 60 mg nolvadex ingredients generic cialis prednisone at 20 mg zoloft online cheap 200 mg lexapro overdose fda cialis online kamagra 100mg tabs erythromycin ethylsuccinate 125mg zovirax oral generic kamagra 100mg.be levitra 20 mg comentarios generic viagra 150 mg. lisinopril 10 mg throat worlds cheapest cialis nolvadex 20 mg contraindicaciones zoloft anxiety 25mg buy 200 mg viagra cialis 5 or 10 mg cvs lexapro 30 mg buy zithromax walgreens prednisone 2.5 mg dose doxycycline hyclate cheap buy levitra wiki augmentin 1000 mg alkol propranolol 10 mg dosage viagra 25 mg cost cytotec online usa cialis venta online cialis 30 mg taking 100 mg lisinopril money order cialis lexapro went generic cialis e20 mg viagra 100mg preis buy zovirax rx took 40mg cialis online drugs cialis viagra usa online cheap uk cialis buy nexium ireland viagra 100 mg costo kamagra cheapest buy glucophage usa lexapro generic efficacy order cialis international prednisone 50 mg reviews zoloft 150 mg dose wellbutrin sr 200mg zithromax online pharmacy generic cialis 20 online cheapest levitra online zoloft 500mg glucophage metformina 850 mg cheap viagra herbal cialis tablet 5mg doxycycline 200 mg dosage order daily cialis cialis 2.5mg pakistan propecia online 5 mg purchase metformin online kamagra 100mg cheap cialis 200mg red acheter viagra 25 mg bad generic wellbutrin nexium generic available cheap propecia 5 mg doxycycline cheapest levitra 180 pills online metformin 250 mg bid 40 mg cialis generic viagra 0.25 mg cheap cialis viagra ordering viagra 25mg avis cialis 20mg xenical 120mg cz buy levitra 5 mg diflucan 50 mg pfizer generic cialis definition nexium generic release zithromax injection 500mg amoxil 250 mg 5ml remedio xenical generico lexapro 10 mg engorda generic viagra manila order Cialis 60 pills asda viagra 100mg wellbutrin 300 mg anxiety 25 mg viagra review buy phenergan infant viagra 50 mg rezeptfrei mexico cialis 2.5 mg zovirax ointment order order doxycycline 500 mg cheap propecia online lisinopril hydrochlorothiazide 25 mg echtes viagra online cialis buy hungary generic pill viagra informacion cialis 20 mg effet zoloft 50 mg lexapro mg available levitra 10 mg funciona lexapro generic exclusivity order viagra condoms generico di levitra buy strattera online 44 lisinopril online kaufen metformin 1000 mg online tablette nexium 40 mg doxycycline 80mg celebrex 200mg srbija buy lasix info acheter cialis 20mg clomid 100mg iui cialis nz cheapest clomid online bodybuilding levitra 20 mg kaufen buy strattera 18mg can buy amoxil lexapro reviews 5 mg viagra 10mg online valtrex online order zithromax online cheap buy viagra pifzer cialis 10mg gta 4 lexapro ejaculation disorder diflucan 200 mg fluconazole thuoc celebrex 100mg generico cialis comprar wellbutrin 750 mg celebrex 100 mg wikipedia cheap cialis perth zoloft 500mg sertralina buying viagra prescription viagra 150mg online xenical information online buy lexapro germany buy cialis england zoloft 50 mg effects cheapest prednisone online cialis 20mg nr 4 diflucan 150 mg pillola lisinopril al 20mg 400 mg viagra dose overdose nexium 40 mg 100 mg levitra viagra 50 mg enough buy viagra nicosia online viagra mastercard generic cialis switzerland lisinopril 400mg erythromycin 333 mg dosage 30 mg dose levitra 150mg viagra cialis 5mg preco buy viagra 100 mg lexapro versus generic lisinopril 40 mg buy priligy acquisto online medicina levitra 20 mg cialis generico 40gr priligy cheap uk canada viagra 50mg buy paypal cialis reichen 25 mg viagra hydrochlorothiazide 25 mg wikipedia metformin dosage 250mg generic levitra test generic cialis problems cialis 20mg cheapest price metformin 500 mg buy lasix usa posologia cialis 5mg buy viagra dc metformin sleep disorders viagra online ordering viagra generico bonifico
Home Maury Brown Saying Kevin Brown's 7-Year Deal with the Dodgers was Bad Shouldn't Be Mystifying

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 933 guests online

Atom RSS

Saying Kevin Brown's 7-Year Deal with the Dodgers was Bad Shouldn't Be Mystifying PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 53
PoorBest 
Written by Maury Brown   
Tuesday, 04 January 2011 01:16

Kevin BrownNOTE: This article has now been featured in The New York Times "Bats" blog (see Kevin Brown’s Contract: Another View)


Uncle Moneybags has busted open the purse-strings this off-season. Be it Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, or Cliff Lee, lucrative multi-year deals far in excess of $100 million have been inked as if money were going out of style.

Be it the Yankees losing the ALCS. Be it the Rangers looking to keep what was already there, the bidding war that was occurring between the two clubs for Cliff Lee’s services had offers on the table that could have ranged as long as seven years and $150 million.

As I said during the time leading up to Lee’s decision, which landed him not in New York or Arlington, but Philadelphia, it was all reminiscent of Kevin Brown’s contract.

On Monday, Dan Rosenheck wrote a piece in The New York Times’ "Keeping Score" column (see For Critics of Lee’s Contract, Brown Deal Is Not Supporting Evidence). In it, Rosenheck opines:

As the dollars and years mounted in the offers to Cliff Lee this off-season, many pessimistic observers invoked the specter of the game’s most infamous pitching contract: the seven-year, $105 million deal signed in 1998 by the surly sinkerballer Kevin Brown. His name has become synonymous with free-agent excess, and serves as a cautionary tale for any general manager contemplating a long-term contract with a pitcher.

“All I could think of was Kevin Brown,” Maury Brown, who runs the Web site The Biz of Baseball, wrote at the height of the bidding war for Lee. He warned that Lee’s suitors were “setting themselves up for a bad contract” and risked losing “all sense of common sense.”

There’s no doubting that seven-year deals for pitchers in their 30s are often bad bets. However, the choice of Brown to personify this is mystifying...

Rosenheck may not be singling me out for the piece (I am, however, the only one quoted in the article). Dan is someone that I have been interviewed by prior through The NY Times, as well as The Economist. It’s likely that he was just using me as a straw man for his position. Be that as it may, here’s some numbers that “demystifies” my position on the Kevin Brown deal.

In fairness, the contract that former Dodgers GM Kevin Malone brokered with Brown may not be the worst long-term deal ever offered a pitcher, but it’s remembered as the beginning of them. Mike Hampton... Barry Zito... there have been others. The point is, any GM worth their salt wouldn’t engage in contracts of such length unless that was an exit plan, or at the very least options that include the bullpen.

The Brown deal with the Dodgers was for 7-years with $105 million as the base salary, an eye-popper at the time, and for good reason. When accounting for inflation, that would translate to $141 million in 2010 dollars. But that was just the base. There was also a $10 million bonus, 8 premium season tickets; 12 private jet round trip, and ground transportation to his home in Macon, GA or selected games in season, plus private jet round trips with ground transportation to post-season away games. He also was afforded a suite on the road. In terms of perks, the Brown deal is consider one of -- if not the – granddaddy of them all.

SELECT READ MORE TO SEE THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE

 

 

Scott Boras represented Brown when he signed in the 1998 off-season at the age of 33. Boras had represented Greg Maddux in his 5-year deal that had exceeded its value, and that likely played into talks with Malone. While Brown was coming off a spectacular season in 1997 with the Padres, by the time the long-term deal with the Dodgers would end, he would be 40, which posed risk in terms of performance decline and possible injury.

While the market in terms of dollars and years for position players were running extraordinarily high, pitchers are not position players. In salary arbitration, MLB’s method for assigning salary value to players in a certain service time level, you compare apples to apples. Comparing pitchers to position players would be a non-starter. Comparables to Brown might be Randy Johnson in 1997 ($6,325,000), but that had been the year he had come in second in Cy Young voting and two years after he won the AL Cy Young. Johnson would not earn more than Brown in the deal’s yearly salary (minus the 1999 salary that was $10 million, plus) until 2004 with the Diamondbacks. By then, he had won four Cy Young awards and was a World Series co-MVP. Another comp would be Pedro Martinez. For Martinez, who won 3 Cy Youngs and came in second in the voting twice, he only had one season (2004) when he earned more than all but the first year of the Brown contract ($17,500,000).

In 1999, the first year of the deal, Brown made $10,714,286, ranked 3rd in strikeouts (221) behind Johnson, and Pedro; 2nd in IP (252.1) over 35 games behind only Johnson; 5th in ERA (3.00) behind Pedro Martinez, Johnson, Kevin Millwood, and Mike Hampton. He landed 3rd in Cy Young voting, was an All-Star, and garnered 16th in MVP voting. His Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) was 71.6, ranking him 5th in the league, while his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was 5.8, down from 8.4 the year prior. It was one of Brown’s best years under the Dodgers’ deal, and one that surely had the club thinking that they made a great deal. He goes 18-9, while the Dodgers finish third in the NL West, going 77-85 (.475)

He followed up 1999 with another strong season in 2000, garnering 6th in NL Cy Young voting and an All-Star selection, his WAR jumped to 6.5, and his VORP moved up to 82.6 behind only Johnson, and Pedro’s season that is considered one of the best all-time.

But it’s here that the wheels fall off, and why looking at long-term pitcher contracts from selected years often runs into a wall.

In 2001, Brown injures his neck and then in July tears his flexor muscle in his right elbow. Because of it, he winds up throwing almost half the innings pitched from the year prior (115.2) over 19 games. His salary, locked in at $15,714,286 over the remainder of the seven year deal hangs with Brown through 2002 where he musters just 63.2 IP over 10 games where his WAR drops into negative numbers (-0.4).

Brown bounces back in 2003, landing an All-Star selection, goes 14-9 with a 2.39 ERA, which lands him 3rd best in the league over 211 IP, not as great as he was early on in the contract, but still 26th overall in Innings Pitched.

In the off-season, the Dodgers, wisely seeing that Brown has gained at least some value back after his elbow injury, trade him to the Yankees who are looking for someone to fill-in for the departed Andy Pettitte. The trade saved Malone from not being the only one smitten with a career spike. The Bombers give the Dodgers Jeff Weaver and two minor league prospects. To add, the Yankees throw in $3 million cash in the deal and agree to pay $1.5 million a year on the remainder of Weaver’s $9.25 million contract.

It turns into a disappointment for the Yankees. At 39, Brown goes 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA in 122 IP, 79 fewer than he threw the year prior in his final year with the Yankees. It wasn’t terrible but far from worth close to $16 million. His WAR is now 2.5.

His final year in the Majors, he has 13 game starts, goes 4-7 with a 6.50 ERA and a -0.9 WAR.

Breaking it down, what you get with Kevin Brown is really 3.5 exceptional years (1999 thru July of ’01 and 2003) and 3.5 years of injury and decline.  His 7-year, $105 million deal winds up looking like this:

72-45 (.585) with a 3.72 ERA over 172 games and 1076.2 IP.

To wrap this up…

There’s a reason the Phillies had only given 3-year deals to pitchers… Until Cliff Lee’s 5-year contract this off-season.  It was due to risk.

The Dodgers didn’t ink the deal with Brown thinking about only getting half of the years in value. And remember, this is during the steroid era. While Brown never tested positive, he was linked to the Mitchell Report (see page 263 – PDF) through Kirk Radomski who said Brown contacted him after the injuries in 2001 asking about hGH. According to Radomski, over the next two or three years he sold performance-enhancing substances to Brown five or six times.

Maybe the best person to speak about whether the Kevin Brown deal was good or bad was the man who made the deal for Kevin Brown in the first place.

“Did it make sense?” Kevin Malone said to The New York Times in early Dec. “No. Seven years for a pitcher is a lifetime. It’s just scary, and any general manager who tells you it isn’t, well, I’m not sure what calculations they are going by.”

When you want to talk bad pitcher contracts, you start with the Kevin Brown deal with the Dodgers due to it being a shining example of the risks (and high salary) associated with it. That shouldn’t be mystifying.

NOTE: Kevin Brown should never be considered a bad pitcher by any stretch due to the Dodgers signing him to a long contract. Indeed, Brown is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this year. The announcement of who is elected to the HOF will take place Weds. at 2pm ET.


Maury BrownMaury Brown is the Founder and President of the Business of Sports Network, which includes The Biz of Baseball, The Biz of Football, The Biz of Basketball and The Biz of Hockey, as well as a contributor to FanGraphs and Forbes SportsMoney. He is available for hire or freelance. Brown's full bio is here. He looks forward to your comments via email and can be contacted through the Business of Sports Network.

Follow Maury Brown on Twitter Twitter

Follow The Biz of Baseball on Twitter Twitter

FacebookFollow the Business of Sports Network on Facebook

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?