where can i get etodolac pills law and order svu liv undercover cheap himplasia pills cheap branded viagra online nexium drugs use orlistat without prescriptions acne medicine accutane actos where to get cheap celadrin rocaltrol online in usa buy depo medrol for dogs orlistat in india anastrozole vs letrozole bodybuilding where to buy abortion pill in uk can i order diclofenac no prescription in the usa zyrtec and birth control pills exelon by mail best generic trental sites finasteride in the treatment of men with frontal male pattern hair loss generic compazine prochlorperazine diflucan 150mg india blood thinner coumadin generic Purchase 1 pharmacy abilify generic can u buy viagra in canada levitra in usa can i get pregnant on methotrexate citalopram without prescription best places to buy side effects of zyvox in dogs can you order brand advair diskus drugs cheap donde comprar viagra sin receta costa rica how much benadryl is safe to take for sleep how to get off doxycycline buy brand cialis discount zithromax suspension dose for children purchase aciphex europe pharmacy como comprar cialis generico en espan~a alli available prescription what all is topamax used for prednisone 10 mg tablet price best place to buy suprax over counter abilify over the counter sleep aids without benadryl purchasing uroxatral online uk beconase aq drug oversea where to buy combivent with echeck buy augmentin xr online can you buy cardura over the counter cheap adderall online pharmacy clomid dose missed oral viagra jelly zyvox prescriptions does walmart sell over the counter inhalers purchase arava cheap plavix canada companies only kamagra gold discount drug market order metoclopramide femcare where to get what drug classification is lopid femara cost for infertility where to buy alligators care is depo provera 100 safe tinidazole without a prescription from uk how to take prednisone 10mg tablets what is craigslist yahoo cost of lotrisone buy coumadin canada tamoxifen drugstore pill identifier with pictures shop costco online without membership how to get procardia drug zithromax discounts codes buy parlodel australia define content validity what does abilify do to your brain buy effexor xr greece uk version of accutane tulasi no prescription compare prices alphagan 5mg tablets buy prednisone online now propecia 1 mg chlamydia medication names order adalat 20 pharmacy elavil for migraines headache low cost benicar levitra usage 20 mg levitra flagyl delivered to your home 3 day shipping on on-line drugs nitroglycerin sublingual tablets stability cost comparison pill propecia canada buy haldol australia buy brafix australia ipratropium bromide and albuterol sulfate inhalation solution ventolin comprar espan~a buy eurax cream online cheapest buy accutane online xenical de laboratorio roche viagra vancouver canada viagra professional store prescription cheap buy hyzaar 100 25 anafranil next day shipping can you buy haridra church prescription best price for retin-a micro gel tadalafil 10mg reviews prednisone buy india what is the generic name for plavix generic name for rosuvastatin can uk buy levothyroxine online clomid ovulation predictor test harga obat cefixime 100 mg benadryl tablets purchase on line how much food to take with celebrex chloroquine online legally 100 mg vs 50 mg viagra buy clonidine pills online lipitor generic uk ashwagandha tablets for weight loss rui cialis buy zocor generic how to buy duetact in london synthroid doctors online dapoxetine lawsuit settlements depakote tablets purchase on line how to use benzac ac 2.5 trazodone without a prescription from india cheap relafen sale uk ordering lipitor from canada treatment of coumadin toxicity nitroglycerin dosage for heart attack cheap place to buy alli order non generic aricept 25 mg viagra side effects augmentin price australia buy priligy in malaysia minocycline for sale philippines tramadol no prescription uk buy aspirin boots buy risperdal for daily use zolpidem 5mg price glucotrol side effects fatigue zebeta delivery buy cardura from mexico online comprar deltasone en argentina birth control pills lanoxin is it illegal to order generic aristocort cleocin cream over the counter genuine abana buy terramycin eye ointment uk liposafe where to get us online pharmacy no prescription depakote lady era tablets for sale best online pharmacies united states worldwide pharmacy lanoxin levitra best price levitra professional tablets for sale buy zantac hong kong tenormin online bestellen benadryl for sale what is wellbutrin supposed to do atorlip-20 discount voucher skelaxin price generic is generic neurontin available in usa quickest cefixime etodolac generic drug combivent inhaler price walmart no prescription retin-a 0,025 sale dutas pill canadian max dose zestoretic nhs cost simvastatin prinivil tablets from buy shallaki from usa pharmacy free discount prescriptions cards etodolac abuse pfizer viagra online euro pharmacy online percocet 512 overdose diclofenac canadian source cymbalta from mexico buy ventolin inhaler hfa glucophage xr available generic enteric coated aspirin generic name is trental a prescription drug buying chloroquine for dogs compazine side effects treatment atorlip-20 from canada bupron sr without script astelin order ultra low dose hoodia buy indomethacin uk buy unisom pills online ordering buspar online viagra in lagos nigeria cialis 20mg tablets uk viagra super active without prescription canada cymbalta tablets used side effects of ropinirole toprol xl no prescription compare prices lancet azithromycin bronchiectasis ventolin medication super scooter 1000 lithium over the counter anxiety medication for children donde puedo comprar malegra fxt low cost overnight bentyl can you buy nizoral at walmart what does paroxetine 40 mg look like renagel on the internet ordering medication alesse mg dostinex cabergoline tablets viagra pill canadian mircette side effects mood swings buy fml forte next day buy medrol usa roxithromycin on line for sale no script periactin reviews ordering snovitra super power here in canada where can i buy real viagra pills health canada calan allegra dose for dogs yasmin without prescription paroxetine for men in usa cardizem generic release date buy paxil without a script what are the most common side effects of celexa which uk site to buy proscar what does flonase corticosteroid nasal spray dulcolax usa order levitra canada pills dog anxiety medication clomicalm is there a generic for benicar hct what is ciprofloxacin hcl used to treat mail order live chickens buy alphagan online uk generic unisom online sales actoplus met without script no rx pravachol online buy doxazosin 2 mg what does bactrim do to bacteria canada drugs accutane with prescription norvasc prescription effects pariet discontinued safe micardis buy generic from minocycline indian generics online vasotec naproxen danazol to buy in australia generic levaquin for sale on line normal dose of prednisone for asthma best maxaman prices lioresal tablets for purchase how long does it take valtrex to work for cold sores xenical buy online mexico nolvadex buy mexico can you only get benzac on prescription buy cheap generic abilify u.k. online drug store without prescription buy adalat generic cheap pills catalog how to buy lopid in london cipralex overdose side effects viagra soft pharmacy online fincar online ordering levothroid.com phenamax order by phone stromectol precio mexico beat way to order prazosin mexican compounding pharmacy aciphex best price erexin-v in the uk cialis overnight shipping no prescription anacin pill shortage does minoxidil work minoxidil reviews cialis sublingual generic 2013 drugs bactrim online from uk cheapest risperdal in the uk what does toradol do to you medicament cialis 20mg prix amaryl medicine information onlain kino 2010 side effects of abilify in autistic children buy lioresal usa feldene generic release date effects of viagra medications no prescription nolvadex wellbutrin pills look like exelon echeck what dosage of prednisone for dogs best natural sex pills for women tamoxifen for sale where to buy liv 52 drugs online tetracycline for discount keflex medication uses using viagra and poppers buy cheap meds online no prescription best price diarex problemas de ereccion pastillas erythromycin discount no prescription aleve shop net order cytoxan canada where to buy alligator gar viagra samples free pfizer escrow refills review prednisone medicine cheap tamoxifen 20 mg long-term side effects of florinef snovitra super power shoppers drug mart cialis professional dosage instructions can you buy benicar fast worldwide shipping pharmacy grifulvin v generic wikipedia drugs diflucan dosage candida esophagitis beta-val generic liquid compazine review viagra singapore lamisil tablets uses duphalac canada prescription no prescription finast sale cleocin gel tablets 150 mg viagra plus not generic no rx noroxin online can you buy combivent in ireland illegal drug sales online what does risperdal do for children where can i buy cytotec in manila buy shuddha guggulu generic xanax anxiety medication side effects leukeran costco i pill arjuna website purchase tamoxifen in australia micardis over the counter better than nexium hydroxyzine hcl 25 what is cytoxan priming cytotec for sale cheap over the counter products containing sildenafil acquisto cialis sublingual sicuro online how do i pay by check online big round blue pill 224 water pills to lose weight yahoo answers seroquel indiana buy super viagra online dostinex store meclizine generic name how to take maxalt orally disintegrating tablets is.is loc:pt cardizem cd open capsules paroxetine prescription assistance depression buy orlestat online oregon state baseball score bystolic copay discount pain pills online cheap altace from usa claritin drug class pregnancy acheter pas cher lotrisone cheapest drug pyridium no rx celebrex what is luvox side effects where to buy sertraline online where to get prilosec pct roxithromycin buy canada generic exelon uk paypal zebeta uses medication pariet brand positioning Purchase accutane 10 mg isotretinoin floxin for men in usa side effects of casodex medication azithromycin single dose dosage cipro xr sale reviews on shatavari current price hytrin pastilla ciprofloxacino para que sirve mevacor buy online ireland para que se usa el serophene can you order hydrea order lopid medication by mail how long do you need to use accutane augmentin duo buy online endep tab 10mg 50 tc tetracycline fish diabecon costco pyridium 50mg tablets canadian trial erection packs 2 what does methotrexate do to the liver buy voltaren boots pharmacy aleve drug classification lopressor dosage iv where is lapland holidays glucophage dosage too high does voltaren gel come generic trazodone hydrochloride 50 mg street value side effects of ginseng for men keppra order by phone kamagra 100mg oral jelly india prograf mail order resources for prandin pulmicort for sale danazol woldwide shipping hydrochlorothiazide medications levitra professional no prescription pill 5mg nitroglycerin tablets prices tinidazole drug in mexico pharmacy ovulation calculator while on clomid brahmi pill canadian proscar 5 mg canada is aricept available in generic diltiazem hcl manufacturers in india seroquel 100mg side effects reviews on phenamax order dipyridamole drugstore world;s tallest healthy man is proscar available on line in canada how much is dostinex tablets buy combivent have no prescription order finasteride no prescription salep elocon untuk bayi buy generic finast online buy genuine remeron uk maxifort tomato seeds flagyl comprimidos dosis fml forte in croatia citalopram missed dose 3 days cleocin pharmacy pak drama online geo buy ginseng coffee australia buy clomid online at canada pharmacy ginette-35 for sale philippines can you take celexa daily acyclovir no prescription overnight shipping motorola visar lithium battery serophene bula cialis soft medicine online how much will duetact cost lasix dose in acute renal failure seroquel drugs like lasix side effect potassium celebrex class action lawsuit canada lexapro refills mexican pharmacy no prescription zestoretic non generic voveran sr nexium 40 mg sale can i take two 20mg cialis reviews on acai berry slim order exelon rx buy liv 52 online canadian alliance of dance artists on ontario chapter actoplus met cost reglan medication guide online sale of tenormin estrace tablets 2mg pulmicort brand positioning buy lexapro without prescription blue oval pill 100 imprint where can i buy viagra online india buy luvox 100mg online what drug category is cholestoplex costco reading times safe buy colospa online what is albendazole pills used for buy zyrtec hong kong cod comment acheter viagra quebec where to buy citalopram hydrobromide depo provera lawsuit 2010 generic from flovent order sodium generic diclofenac canadian diovan proventil pas cher italie cheapest flovent inhaler buy levaquin 750 what is the formula weight of aspirin brand name mevacor online buy allegra with drugs prescription tamoxifen shortage 2012 buy revatio online reviews motilium tablets uk endep from india tetracycline for dogs side effects prednisolone vs prednisone for cats dangers of pain pills and alcohol comprar ciplox online street value of seroquel 100mg health canada pilex plavix canada approval dilantin cheap canada pharmacy imitrex tablets for purchase tadalafil 5mg cialis benadryl allergy pills dosage orlistat global sales unisom sleep aid coupons abilify price canadian pharmacy alli generic reviews accutane pharmacy assistance programs how to order venlor what are the side effects of stopping fosamax walmart pharmacy hours in canada pharmacy cialis cheap no script elavil pills online in the canada no script zenegra mg online elevil side effects of zestril 5mg buspar online generic from finast beconase aq rx what does flonase fluticasone nasal spray trihexyphenidyl artane abuse
Home Maury Brown Valuating Matsuzaka

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 416 guests online

Atom RSS

Valuating Matsuzaka PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 2
PoorBest 
Written by Maury Brown   
Thursday, 16 November 2006 05:25

There has been considerable talk of whether the cost for the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka is really worth it for the Red Sox. Before we delve into that, maybe we should see why he's so coveted.

MatsuzakaNAME:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
POSITION:
Right-handed pitcher
AGE:
26 (Sept. 13, 1980)
HEIGHT/WEIGHT:
6-foot/187 pounds

DRAFTED:
No. 1 pick by Seibu Lions ('98)
MAJOR HONORS:
1999 Pacific League Rookie of the Year
2001 Sawamura Award (top pitcher in Japan)
2006 World Baseball Classic MVP

CAREER STATISTICS - All with Seibu Lions
YR IP W L BB K ERA
'99 180 16 5 87 151 2.60
'00 167.2 14 7 95 144 3.97
'01 240.1 15 15 117 214 3.60
'02 73.1 6 2 15 78 3.68
'03 194 16 7 63 215 2.83
'04 146 10 6 42 127 2.90
'05 215 14 13 49 226 2.30
'06 186.1 17 5 34 200 2.60
TOT 1,402.2 108 60 502 1,355 2.95

Matsuzaka has 4 outstanding pitches, including an insanely nasty slider and the now oft-talked of Gyroball. Here is footage of what the pitch looks like: 

 

 As Will Carroll noted yesterday on Baseball Prospectus:

The work of ESPN's Patrick Hruby and Dr. Nathan have led me to discover that the "gyroball with side force" is the pitch that I have been teaching. By tilting the axis of rotation slightly up, the ball now moves laterally, away from a right-handed hitter. By tilting it down, the ball moves in on a right-handed hitter. In the time I've taught the pitch, one of the strangest actions was that occasionally the ball would break in rather than out, something that I simply couldn’t explain until now. This "side force" pitch should also break down, something that's not always seen. I think that the pitch is often thrown as something of a combo of the "side force" and "lift force" variations.

When thrown "properly," this variation on the pitch breaks hard away from a righthanded hitter. While I'll stand by my guesses that the pitch will break in feet rather than inches, Dr. Nathan's calculations that the pitch wouldn't break more than a normal slider interest me. I believe there may be some "optical illusion" to the pitch. Since it is normally thrown to initially travel towards the batter, the sharp break back to the plate may be throwing off our views. However, I have watched this pitch from every angle. I’ve stood in against it, and hate it every time. I have stood behind the catcher and behind the pitcher. I have even seen it thrown in games, and to me and others around me, the pitch appears to move more significantly than a slider.

 As for the slider, here it is in all its nastiness:

Here is a montage of Matsuzaka in action:

The question becomes, is Matsuzaka worth the $51.5 million in bid money, as well as the contract figures that have been discussed? Let's take a closer look...

Scott Boras, Matsuzaka's agent has likened the Japanese pitcher to Roy Oswalt. In other words, Boras will be looking to land a multi-year deal that could be as much as 5-years and $80 million. As I've mentioned prior, the bid money does not count against Average Annual Valuation (AVV), and therefore will not impact revenue-sharing or the Luxury Tax thresholds. In other words, the bid money does not count as salary, but rather an ancillary cost. Is this cutting hairs? Maybe. What many are trying to determine is if there are "soft-revenues" associated with Matsuzaka. These would be things like tourism dollars coming into Fenway by way of Japanese fans, sponsorship dollars, etc. Television monies are a non-factor as those revenues are centralized and spread evenly between the clubs. As Joe Sheehan writes for Baseball Prospectus and SI.com today:

Matsuzaka's 5.4 WARP would now be worth nearly $13 million based on inflation before taking into account his impact on the Sox' chance to reach the postseason.

One reason a team like the Red Sox, which has never had a Japanese star, is motivated to sign one is the potential for marketing opportunities. It's not easy to quantify what these mean to the bottom line, since much of the potential revenue has been tapped by MLB via broadcast contracts and licensing agreements. BP's Maury Brown says, "It may be hard to quantify the situation as a 1:1. Ichiro's value to the Mariners/Seattle is due to the location: Seattle sits on the Pacific Rim, and allows for a great deal of tourism dollars to be associated with Ichiro. I don't know if you will have the tourism dollars associated to Matsuzaka like you have with Ichiro, but other revenues may come along with his acquisition."

The Red Sox are not very well equipped to handle extra demand for tickets among Japanese fans, as they've about maxed out capacity at Fenway Park. They can capture some of the increased demand through raising ticket prices, although they already have the highest ones in the game and they run the risk of a loss of goodwill if they continue to squeeze the fan base. Because Sox games will be televised in Japan more often, they may have the opportunity to sell some stadium signage geared to that market. BP's Neil deMause doesn't see that as a big factor, saying, "If signing Hideki Matsui allowed the Yankees to sell ad signage in the stadium to Japanese companies (I seem to recall the K counter is sponsored by one), how much more did they get over what they could have sold the boards for to another company?"

The Red Sox may have less to gain by adding a Japanese star than the Mariners or Yankees did in signing theirs, but they'll likely generate some additional revenue by having Matsuzaka as opposed to Zito or Schmidt. It is unlikely that those monies alone will cover the $51 million posting fee over a period of years. For the Sox to "win" on a Matsuzaka deal, they will have to do it on the field. Matsuzaka will have to pitch well enough to help the Red Sox go from a team that might make the playoffs to one that does, at least on a few occasions. It's those lucrative playoff appearances, and not the lure of a new market, that make paying twice for the services of one pitcher justifiable, even desirable.

 Other authors are looking into the soft-revenues as well. David Gassko of The Hardball Times writes :

Unfortunately, there are no direct numbers on the teams’ revenues in Japan, so the only estimate we can make is going to be based off indirect evidence. Using Forbes reports on team revenues for the past seven years, here is what I found:

  • In 2001, Ichiro’s rookie season, the Mariners made $27 million more than they had the previous year. The five teams closest to Seattle in revenues in 2000 increased their income by an average of just $6 million.
  • In 2003, Matsui’s rookie season, the Yankees increased their revenues by $8 million. The five teams closest to the Yankees in 2002 revenues upped their earnings by an average of $4 million.
  • Between 2000 and 2006, Seattle’s revenues have increased by $67 million. The five teams closest in revenues to Seattle in 2000 have seen their income increase by an average of $54 million.
  • Between 2002 and 2006, the Yankees’ revenues have gone up $62 million, versus an average increase of $21 million for the five teams closest to them in revenues in ’02.

If average all of that together, we can estimate that signing a Japanese star player is worth something like $9 million a year. But wait, we’re not done. $9 million in 2001 is not the same as $9 million in 2007. Adjusting for inflation (in baseball, inflation has held at a pretty steady 10% a year), we find that the Red Sox should expect to see their revenues in 2007 to increase by about $14 million should they sign Matsuzaka. That’s a sizeable chunk of change.

 There's a slight problem in this analysis, however. As I mentioned in Sheehan's article today, you can't do a straight 1:1 comparison between Ichiro and Matsuzaka because Seattle benefits from having direct travel to Japan and sits within the Pacific Rim where there is a considerable Japanese-American demographic. As for Matsui, he plays in pinstripes which has a huge appeal in Japan to begin with. This isn't to discount that there won't be soft-revenues associated with Matsuzaka (if the Red Sox come to terms on a contract), it's that Gassko might be somewhat over-inflating the figures.

This may well be a case of the Red Sox keeping the Yankees from acquiring Matsuzaka. That's certainly a consideration. What this boils down to is whether this pitcher is really worth the contract value, with the posting bid monies out of the equation. The plain and simple matter is the Red Sox are not hurting in the revenue making department. They have the pockets deep enough to submit a bid that is cartoonish in nature and rationalize it as a separate cost from player salary. This is also a "perfect storm" case where the free agency pool is shallow this off-season, and owners have money to burn after reaching the new Basic Agreement.

In the end, this will be about pitching. If Matsuzaka wins more than 20 games, then all of this may be forgotten... unless there's a next time.

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?