strattera 10 mg reviews xenical buy australia prednisone 40 mg m2 cipro registration online generic 500mg viagra doxycycline 100mg coupon inderal propranolol buy buy doxycycline pets augmentin 62.5 mg drops purchase prednisone online lisinopril watson 10 mg lasix buy uk generics24 kamagra 2013 5 mg dose lexapro generic lasix 500 mg cialis generic super generic line viagra kamagra max buy generic viagra dates ordering lexapro online international viagra online phenergan 25mg tab nexium vs generics lasix online 90g cheap viagra you cialis 200mg reviews day 17 zoloft 25 mgs cheap tetracycline online 60 prednisone 5mg generic zoloft better viagra online germany lexapro generic time cialis generic same diflucan 150 mg breastfeeding buy propecia cheapest hydrochlorothiazide 25 mg tabs propranolol shanghai buy cialis 40mg overnight kamagra viagra cheap xenical 200 mg viagra description online generic viagra anygood cialis malaysia buy generic lexapro discount australia cialis online viagra generic germany Levitra 10 mg Buy diflucan 150 mg ttc levitra 20mg achat nebenwirkung lisinopril 5mg buy prednisone 5mg propranolol 40 mg precio took 2 100mg viagra levitra online satis 15 mg cialis zovirax cheap prices bula viagra generico doxycycline accord 100 mg priligy online apotheke 400 mg of celebrex buspar hcl 15 mg cipro 750mg diferenca viagra generico propecia uk online 100mg cialis dose cialis 5 mg dailyreviews cipro cheap online cheap valtrex online online viagra melbourne prednisone sandoz 20mg metformin er 1000 mg levitra 10mg effects clomid 50mg prescription medication cipro 500 mg celexa generic citalopram buy lasix cheap zoloft online purchase levitra generico 5 mg lisinopril 40 mg mg lexapro 10mg buy buy cheap nolvadex metformin generic problems cipla cialis 5mg cialis canadian generic 2.5mg lexapro pregnancy celebrex online coupon propranolol 10 mgr viagra generico contrareembolso viagra online.it buy uk kamagra strattera 100mg capsule harga levitra 10 mg 50 mg clomid failed viagra original 25 mg propecia buy canada cialis 20 mg confezione clomid order paypal viagra naturale 800mg viagra 100mg fast buy clomid mexico order doxycycline canada prednisone 0.5 mg tab metformin 750 mg cheapest metformin cialis 20mg proffenials levitra dosage 20mg viagra online genuine legit generic viagra viagra online israel 10 or 20 mg lexapro le cialis 20mg priligy generico online prednisone dose mg zoloft tablets 50mg lisinopril 10 mg image zovirax 400 mg viagra online ecuador viagra brand 25mg generico viagra colombia vendita cialis generico bcbsnc cialis 5mg synthroid 50 mg price buy cipro singles 1cheap generic cialis increase mg propecia clomid 25 mg online generic augmentin 500 mg zoloft 50 mg enough cialis 10mg us amoxil 500mg capsule canada generic strattera zoloft 75 mg dosage bactrim 100mg priligy online satis buy cialis tube 300 mgs wellbutrin lexapro 90 mg to buy xenical augmentin duo 500 mg cialis 20 mg cupon generico al cialis cheap quality viagra nexium 40mg gastrite 100mg viagra affectiveness 100 mg strattera high doxycycline monohydrate 75mg buy clomid where online levitra rx buying clomid injection viagra generico farmacia buy viagra costume prednisone 10 mg usage buy viagra florida generic cialis aanbiedingen cialis 20mg malaysia cialis 20 mg distributor buy synthroid 50 mcg generic levitra buy viagra a200mg generic metformin 500 mg lasix 20 mg ivp generic lisinopril appearance propranolol tab 10mg propecia cheap buy propranolol 10 mg bijsluiter amoxicillin 500mg amoxil erythromycin 500mg review online rezept viagra thuoc kamagra 5omg online viagra review prednisone 50mg tab cialis cheap cipla lasix 40 mg dose wellbutrin 450 mg adhd propranolol 160 mg tablets affordable generic viagra lasix mg dosage generic nexium available propecia online order augmentin 375mg tablets 10 mg 36 hour cialis viagra generico sirve bula propranolol 40mg kosten cialis 10 mg propecia online generic mg wellbutrin xl propranolol 20 mg bid std doxycycline 100mg discount levitra generic cialis 5 mg buying cialis professional 100 mg lexapro 10mg info online viagra genuine propranolol 1mg levitra 15 mg cialis online hrvatska 80 mg prednisone dogs zoloft at 50 mg buy 150mg viagra buspar 2.5 mg cheapest cialis onlinecom lexapro sleep disorder doxycycline mgd viagra mg chart wellbutrin generic comparison lasix eating disorder prijs viagra 25 mg hydrochlorothiazide tab 50mg xenical 50mg packungsbeilage viagra 100mg phenergan 10mg pregnancy buy nolvadex walgreens propranolol hctz 40 25 mg buy liquid diflucan 150 mg viagra results viagra generic krka lisinopril 40 mg cheap viagra online ebay diflucan 150 ml buy wellbutrin xl 75 mg dosage cialis 40mg drug prednisone 20 mg lasix 20 mg diuretico glucophage 1000 mg preis levitra 20 mg tabletten generic lexapro experiences 1000 mg metformin pcos diflucan tab 150mg viagra italy online 150 mg clomid nexium generic thailand lexapro 10 mg abbott order discount viagra wellbutrin generic a 101 cialis 5mg 28x cialis 20mg pills gettableonline cialis does generic levitra propranolol 10mg viagra 100mg buying nombres genericos cytotec testberichte viagra 100mg taking zoloft 100mg erythromycin 400 mg acne online viagra shops 400 mg wellbutrin sr clomid 50mg grossesse viagra buy brand generic cialis brand celebrex cost 200mg buy generic lexapro lisinopril 10 mg walmart viagra generic doses buy levitra 90 pills cialis buy cvs buy levitra line thuoc cialis 20mg zithromax online bestellen lisinopril buy online nolvadex comprar online levitra 5 mg ausreichend cialis generic fast Cialis 20mg 60 Tabs 40mg brand cialis zoloft 25 mg forum order cialis online zovirax 400mg cialis 80mg jakarta nexium bid 40 mg zovirax 50 mg generic viagra testimonial chip cialis 40 mg viagra online overseas lasix 500mg buy cialis dosage 40 mg buy cialis 50mg kamagra 100mg dejstvo acyclovir zovirax online viagra buy contest generic lexapro side generic wellbutrin 2012 nexium online drugstore lisinopril 40 mg white cialis nongeneric prednisone 50 mg tablet order zithromax cheap generic propecia paypal 600 mg lexapro cialis 100 mg 10 tablett 150 generic cialis softtabs nexium buy jual nexium 20mg kamagra 100 mg bijwerking doxycycline 75 mg overdose levitra 10mg 8st cialis 5 mg einnahme viagra online .au tratamiento lexapro 10 mg periactin 2mg 5ml viagra online shops viagra india online viagra vegeta 200mgl stopping zoloft 50 mg zithromax 600 mg susp generic cialis mexican prednisone 80mg eye propranolol 40 mg dosage valtrex generic cheapest synthroid 0.05mg generics biz viagra cialis generika 20mg cheaper synthroid clomid 50mg ovulation cialis 5mg rezept generic work levitra cialis manipulado 2.5mg augmentin 625mg uk nexium 20 mg tabletten buy viagra hcmc buy doxycycline china propecia tab 1mg cialis 5mg info wellbutrin sr100mg cialis 20mg 8 st cialis directions 20 mg buy zoloft india viagra online cialis pills 5 mg 20mg lexapro dangerous strattera add online buy bactrim mexico cheap cialis online metformin 500 mg smell lisinopril 10 mg rx 533 cipro 750 mg 14 tablet generic viagra miami metformin xr 750mg lasix online pharmacy doxycycline hyclate buyer generic zoloft medication cheap viagra substitutes buying glucophage clomid online success viagra tablet 100 mg viagra 25mg reviews 2013 amoxil 500 mg dose phenergan tablets 25mg celebrex online pharmacy whats doxycycline 100mg viagra 50 mg use viagra 25 or 50 mg doxycycline 20 mg buy buy viagra au viagra 50 mg forum buy 4 dose zithromax propranolol 40 mg used viagra generic professional dosage zoloft 100mg bactrim generic online viagra online com viagra 100 mg tab online drugstore viagra 150 mg viagra dose cheap cialis web splitting 20mg cialis online prednisone guida online cipro cheap professional cialis periactin cyproheptadine 4mg cialis cena 20 mg cialis price 20 mg cialis cheap 200 mg lyme doxycycline 100mg pastillas viagra generico viagra generico vendita generic celebrex reviews nexium tab online nexium cheap online prednisone 5mg ear cialis pills buyer strattera generic available cheap propecia alternative wellbutrin 150 mgs 200 cialis 20mg viagra 25 mg tablets wirkstoff cialis 20mg remedio generico xenical cheap viagra chinies cheapviagrageneric viagra viagra 50mg tab amoxil 500mg caps cialis tadalafil generico cheap kamagra plus 40 mg. of cialis viagra gel cheapest nexium generic brands buy synthroid online prednisone online 6 day prednisone 120 mg daily cialis 5mg packungsbeilage erythromycin 125mg 5ml doxycycline hyclate backorder nexium 20mg na efectos celebrex 200 mg cipro online purchase cytotec 200mg mirena cialis bulk buy buy lasix pills clomid online 2011 cialis 10mg dose levitra online pharmacy buy zithromax use levitra 20mg filmtabletten 12 prednisone buy online cheap propranolol prednisone 50 mg bid prednisone 5 mg thuoc cialis online uk nexium 40 mg buy viagra 50 mg effect lexapro 60 mg daily cialis 20 mg n4 generic prescription viagra metformin 500 mg od valtrex generic online viagra secure order generic cialis recommended propranolol anxiety 40 mg doxycycline online buying bactrim f generico propranolol hydrochloride 10 mg augmentin 875 125 mg generic wellbutrin rash nexium 10 mg costo cialis 5mg dauer dokteronline zithromax doxycycline 100mg tekenbeet buy viagra now buying vietnam viagra comprar generico viagra 20mg cialis experience lexapro 2.5mg wean comprar viagra 25 mg zithromax 200 mg dosage durata viagra 100mg zovirax 200 mg suspension prednisone dosage 100mg prednisone 200 mg tablets cialis sklep online lexapro 30 mg dose afbouwen lexapro 20 mg prednisone 20 mg canine trail cialis 20mg nebenwirkung viagra 100mg true generic cialis cialis 10mg oglasi 80 mg levitra cheap viagra 100 mg lexapro buying canada 40 mg prednisone alcohol buy propecia dht buspar overdose mg diflucan 50 mg notice buy nolvadex injections 0.5 mg propecia eod online order viagra levitra 5 mg alcohol buy doxycycline inj. clomid pills cheap buy nolvadex without buy cipro without avlocardyl propranolol 40 mg viagra cheap fedex buy viagra zimbabwe paypal generic viagra kamagra 100 mg reviews clomid 12.5mg discreet viagra online cheap propecia prices cialis 20mg couper buy viagra kerala starting lexapro 2.5mg cialis generico 100 safe buying viagra cialis 0 5 mg indicazioni diflucan 150 mg nexium 40 mg po levitra bucodispersable 5 mg zithromax 600 mg price get propranolol online canadian 5 mg cialis prednisone 5mg directions diflucan 150 mg dosaggio liquid cialis cheap generique cialis 20mg 20 mg cialis first nolvadex 10 mg immagine order viagra safely lisinopril dosage generic buy nexium 14 tablets
Home Maury Brown Valuating Matsuzaka

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 932 guests online

Atom RSS

Valuating Matsuzaka PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 2
PoorBest 
Written by Maury Brown   
Thursday, 16 November 2006 05:25

There has been considerable talk of whether the cost for the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka is really worth it for the Red Sox. Before we delve into that, maybe we should see why he's so coveted.

MatsuzakaNAME:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
POSITION:
Right-handed pitcher
AGE:
26 (Sept. 13, 1980)
HEIGHT/WEIGHT:
6-foot/187 pounds

DRAFTED:
No. 1 pick by Seibu Lions ('98)
MAJOR HONORS:
1999 Pacific League Rookie of the Year
2001 Sawamura Award (top pitcher in Japan)
2006 World Baseball Classic MVP

CAREER STATISTICS - All with Seibu Lions
YR IP W L BB K ERA
'99 180 16 5 87 151 2.60
'00 167.2 14 7 95 144 3.97
'01 240.1 15 15 117 214 3.60
'02 73.1 6 2 15 78 3.68
'03 194 16 7 63 215 2.83
'04 146 10 6 42 127 2.90
'05 215 14 13 49 226 2.30
'06 186.1 17 5 34 200 2.60
TOT 1,402.2 108 60 502 1,355 2.95

Matsuzaka has 4 outstanding pitches, including an insanely nasty slider and the now oft-talked of Gyroball. Here is footage of what the pitch looks like: 

 

 As Will Carroll noted yesterday on Baseball Prospectus:

The work of ESPN's Patrick Hruby and Dr. Nathan have led me to discover that the "gyroball with side force" is the pitch that I have been teaching. By tilting the axis of rotation slightly up, the ball now moves laterally, away from a right-handed hitter. By tilting it down, the ball moves in on a right-handed hitter. In the time I've taught the pitch, one of the strangest actions was that occasionally the ball would break in rather than out, something that I simply couldn’t explain until now. This "side force" pitch should also break down, something that's not always seen. I think that the pitch is often thrown as something of a combo of the "side force" and "lift force" variations.

When thrown "properly," this variation on the pitch breaks hard away from a righthanded hitter. While I'll stand by my guesses that the pitch will break in feet rather than inches, Dr. Nathan's calculations that the pitch wouldn't break more than a normal slider interest me. I believe there may be some "optical illusion" to the pitch. Since it is normally thrown to initially travel towards the batter, the sharp break back to the plate may be throwing off our views. However, I have watched this pitch from every angle. I’ve stood in against it, and hate it every time. I have stood behind the catcher and behind the pitcher. I have even seen it thrown in games, and to me and others around me, the pitch appears to move more significantly than a slider.

 As for the slider, here it is in all its nastiness:

Here is a montage of Matsuzaka in action:

The question becomes, is Matsuzaka worth the $51.5 million in bid money, as well as the contract figures that have been discussed? Let's take a closer look...

Scott Boras, Matsuzaka's agent has likened the Japanese pitcher to Roy Oswalt. In other words, Boras will be looking to land a multi-year deal that could be as much as 5-years and $80 million. As I've mentioned prior, the bid money does not count against Average Annual Valuation (AVV), and therefore will not impact revenue-sharing or the Luxury Tax thresholds. In other words, the bid money does not count as salary, but rather an ancillary cost. Is this cutting hairs? Maybe. What many are trying to determine is if there are "soft-revenues" associated with Matsuzaka. These would be things like tourism dollars coming into Fenway by way of Japanese fans, sponsorship dollars, etc. Television monies are a non-factor as those revenues are centralized and spread evenly between the clubs. As Joe Sheehan writes for Baseball Prospectus and SI.com today:

Matsuzaka's 5.4 WARP would now be worth nearly $13 million based on inflation before taking into account his impact on the Sox' chance to reach the postseason.

One reason a team like the Red Sox, which has never had a Japanese star, is motivated to sign one is the potential for marketing opportunities. It's not easy to quantify what these mean to the bottom line, since much of the potential revenue has been tapped by MLB via broadcast contracts and licensing agreements. BP's Maury Brown says, "It may be hard to quantify the situation as a 1:1. Ichiro's value to the Mariners/Seattle is due to the location: Seattle sits on the Pacific Rim, and allows for a great deal of tourism dollars to be associated with Ichiro. I don't know if you will have the tourism dollars associated to Matsuzaka like you have with Ichiro, but other revenues may come along with his acquisition."

The Red Sox are not very well equipped to handle extra demand for tickets among Japanese fans, as they've about maxed out capacity at Fenway Park. They can capture some of the increased demand through raising ticket prices, although they already have the highest ones in the game and they run the risk of a loss of goodwill if they continue to squeeze the fan base. Because Sox games will be televised in Japan more often, they may have the opportunity to sell some stadium signage geared to that market. BP's Neil deMause doesn't see that as a big factor, saying, "If signing Hideki Matsui allowed the Yankees to sell ad signage in the stadium to Japanese companies (I seem to recall the K counter is sponsored by one), how much more did they get over what they could have sold the boards for to another company?"

The Red Sox may have less to gain by adding a Japanese star than the Mariners or Yankees did in signing theirs, but they'll likely generate some additional revenue by having Matsuzaka as opposed to Zito or Schmidt. It is unlikely that those monies alone will cover the $51 million posting fee over a period of years. For the Sox to "win" on a Matsuzaka deal, they will have to do it on the field. Matsuzaka will have to pitch well enough to help the Red Sox go from a team that might make the playoffs to one that does, at least on a few occasions. It's those lucrative playoff appearances, and not the lure of a new market, that make paying twice for the services of one pitcher justifiable, even desirable.

 Other authors are looking into the soft-revenues as well. David Gassko of The Hardball Times writes :

Unfortunately, there are no direct numbers on the teams’ revenues in Japan, so the only estimate we can make is going to be based off indirect evidence. Using Forbes reports on team revenues for the past seven years, here is what I found:

  • In 2001, Ichiro’s rookie season, the Mariners made $27 million more than they had the previous year. The five teams closest to Seattle in revenues in 2000 increased their income by an average of just $6 million.
  • In 2003, Matsui’s rookie season, the Yankees increased their revenues by $8 million. The five teams closest to the Yankees in 2002 revenues upped their earnings by an average of $4 million.
  • Between 2000 and 2006, Seattle’s revenues have increased by $67 million. The five teams closest in revenues to Seattle in 2000 have seen their income increase by an average of $54 million.
  • Between 2002 and 2006, the Yankees’ revenues have gone up $62 million, versus an average increase of $21 million for the five teams closest to them in revenues in ’02.

If average all of that together, we can estimate that signing a Japanese star player is worth something like $9 million a year. But wait, we’re not done. $9 million in 2001 is not the same as $9 million in 2007. Adjusting for inflation (in baseball, inflation has held at a pretty steady 10% a year), we find that the Red Sox should expect to see their revenues in 2007 to increase by about $14 million should they sign Matsuzaka. That’s a sizeable chunk of change.

 There's a slight problem in this analysis, however. As I mentioned in Sheehan's article today, you can't do a straight 1:1 comparison between Ichiro and Matsuzaka because Seattle benefits from having direct travel to Japan and sits within the Pacific Rim where there is a considerable Japanese-American demographic. As for Matsui, he plays in pinstripes which has a huge appeal in Japan to begin with. This isn't to discount that there won't be soft-revenues associated with Matsuzaka (if the Red Sox come to terms on a contract), it's that Gassko might be somewhat over-inflating the figures.

This may well be a case of the Red Sox keeping the Yankees from acquiring Matsuzaka. That's certainly a consideration. What this boils down to is whether this pitcher is really worth the contract value, with the posting bid monies out of the equation. The plain and simple matter is the Red Sox are not hurting in the revenue making department. They have the pockets deep enough to submit a bid that is cartoonish in nature and rationalize it as a separate cost from player salary. This is also a "perfect storm" case where the free agency pool is shallow this off-season, and owners have money to burn after reaching the new Basic Agreement.

In the end, this will be about pitching. If Matsuzaka wins more than 20 games, then all of this may be forgotten... unless there's a next time.

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?